Market Overview for Marlin/Tether (PONDUSDT): Volatility and Weak Buy Signals

• Marlin/Tether (PONDUSDT) drifted lower in volatile 24-hour session, closing near intraday low.
• Key support near 0.00786 tested multiple times; buyers attempted retests but failed to gain momentum.
• Volume spiked during sharp 1.6% pullback at 22:45 ET; price then traded in a tight range.
• RSI under 30 and declining MACD suggest potential oversold conditions, but bullish conviction remains low.
• Bollinger Bands narrowed midday before expanding as price swung between 0.00779 and 0.00805.

Opening Narrative

Marlin/Tether (PONDUSDT) opened at 0.00799 on 2025-09-22 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of 0.00805, and a low of 0.00779, closing at 0.00802 by 12:00 ET on 2025-09-23. Total volume traded over the 24-hour period was 11,198,485.8, with turnover amounting to approximately $89,612.

Structure & Formations

Price action displayed a series of failed bullish attempts after a sharp 1.6% decline at 22:45 ET. This candle formed a bearish engulfing pattern, suggesting a rejection of higher prices. A long lower wick around 0.00786 indicates some support, but the bearish trend has yet to be decisively reversed. A 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at 0.00791 appears to have acted as a minor resistance, with price bouncing off that level multiple times. The 61.8% level at 0.00787 has been tested twice, indicating a possible short-term floor for the asset.

Volume & Turnover

The most significant volume spike occurred at 22:45 ET, with a large candle printing a 0.00779 low and a 0.0079 high. Notional turnover also surged during this period. However, price failed to follow up with a convincing rebound, leading to a divergence between volume and price. This suggests weakening bearish momentum, but buyers have yet to step in decisively. The overall volume profile appears to be skewed toward the lower half of the range, hinting that accumulation may be occurring at lower levels.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages are in a bearish crossover, reinforcing the downtrend. Price has spent much of the session below both, with occasional retests. The daily chart shows the 50-period MA above the 100-period and 200-period, indicating a neutral to slightly bearish bias. A retest of the 50-period MA on the daily chart at around 0.0080 could offer a near-term opportunity for buyers to test that level.

MACD & RSI

The MACD histogram has been contracting in the negative territory, with the line approaching the zero line. This suggests that bearish momentum may be slowing. RSI has dipped below 30, indicating oversold conditions, but without a bullish crossover in the MACD, this could be a false signal. A strong close above the 0.0080 level could trigger a reversal in both indicators.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands have been relatively wide for much of the session, especially after the sharp pullback. Price has tested the lower band multiple times, particularly around the 0.00787 level. The most recent candle at 16:00 ET closed near the midline of the bands, indicating that volatility is stabilizing. A move beyond the upper band would suggest a breakout, but given the bearish context, this seems unlikely in the immediate term.

Fibonacci Retracements

The key Fibonacci levels for the recent 15-minute swing (0.00779 to 0.00805) are at 0.00787 (61.8%) and 0.00791 (38.2%). The 0.00787 level has been tested twice, with price rebounding both times, suggesting that this level could hold in the near term. On the daily chart, a retest of the 61.8% retracement level at 0.0080 could offer a potential entry for bulls. Traders may watch closely for a potential bounce or breakdown from these levels.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could involve entering long positions on a close above the 50-period moving average on the 15-minute chart, particularly when RSI crosses above 30 and MACD shows a bullish crossover. This would aim to capture potential short-term rebounds from oversold conditions. A stop-loss could be placed below the 0.00787 level, while a profit target would be set at the 0.00805 high. The strategy would be most effective if accompanied by increasing volume and a move above the upper Bollinger Band. This aligns with the observed patterns in the last 24 hours, where price has shown signs of stabilizing near key technical levels.