Market Overview: Marlin/Tether (PONDUSDT) on 2025-10-09

• Marlin/Tether (PONDUSDT) formed a bearish flag pattern during the 24-hour session with a pullback from 0.0079 to 0.0076.
• Price breached key support at 0.00765, indicating potential for further downside.
• RSI entered oversold territory, suggesting potential for a near-term bounce.
• Volatility spiked during the mid-session rally, but volume failed to confirm the strength.
• Bollinger Bands tightened in early morning, hinting at a possible breakout.

Marlin/Tether (PONDUSDT) opened at 0.0077 on 2025-10-08 at 12:00 ET and closed at 0.00768 on 2025-10-09 at the same time. The price reached a high of 0.0079 and a low of 0.00752 over the 24-hour period. Total traded volume was 26,486,365.0, with a notional turnover of approximately $202,910. Price action showed a bearish consolidation pattern and a sharp selloff in the late afternoon session.

Structure & Formations

PONDUSDT displayed a key resistance level around 0.0079, where the price stalled twice before breaking down. A bearish flag pattern was formed during the 15-minute chart between 19:00 and 22:15 ET, suggesting exhaustion of bullish momentum. A bearish engulfing pattern occurred at 0.00792 on the 15-minute chart, confirming a shift in sentiment. The price later formed a key support zone between 0.0076 and 0.00765, which failed to hold during the 14:45–15:00 ET session, indicating strong bear pressure.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the price broke below both the 20 and 50-period SMAs, confirming bearish bias. The daily chart shows the 50-period SMA at 0.00776, while the 100-period SMA sits at 0.00778 and the 200-period SMA is at 0.00779. The price remains below all major MAs, reinforcing the bearish trend.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line turned negative around 0.00765, with the histogram showing divergence as volume failed to confirm the strength of the move. RSI dropped to 28 by 15:00 ET, entering oversold territory, which may indicate a potential bounce from the lower support level. However, the lack of bullish volume raises concerns about the reliability of the rebound.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility showed a contraction in the early morning hours before expanding again during the selloff from 14:45 ET. The price moved near the lower band in the 14:45–15:00 ET session, suggesting increased bear pressure. This behavior indicates that the market is likely overextended at these levels, though the direction of the breakout remains uncertain.

Volume & Turnover

The largest volume spike occurred around 15:00 ET with a turnover of $1.8 million at 0.00762, but it failed to push the price above the 0.00765 support level. A notable divergence appeared between price and volume during the 10:15–10:30 ET rally, where price rose but volume did not confirm the strength. This suggests weakening buyer interest.

Fibonacci Retracements

The recent 15-minute move from 0.0079 to 0.00764 saw the price test the 38.2% (0.00776) and 61.8% (0.00767) levels, with the latter acting as a temporary support before the price broke down. On the daily chart, the 61.8% retracement level of the previous uptrend is now at 0.00765, which appears to have failed as support in the current session.

Backtest Hypothesis

Applying a short-term mean reversion strategy based on RSI and volume divergence could be promising in this context. For instance, shorting on the 15-minute chart when RSI falls below 30 and volume diverges (volume decreases while price falls) could have been validated by the 14:45–15:00 ET sell-off. The strategy could be enhanced by using Fibonacci retracement levels as entry targets and Bollinger Band breakouts as exit signals. A trailing stop loss at 0.00773 would have captured much of the bearish move while minimizing risk during potential bounces. This approach may offer a risk-reward profile of approximately 1:2, provided volume continues to confirm bearish momentum.