Market Overview: Manchester City Fan Token/Tether (CITYUSDT)

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• Price opened at 0.685, reached a high of 0.698 before consolidating to close near 0.664, reflecting a bearish bias over 24 hours.
• Strong selling pressure emerged post-11:30 PM ET, leading to a rapid drop of nearly 6% within 1.5 hours.
• RSI signaled oversold territory (below 30) by 3:30 PM ET, but price failed to rebound significantly, indicating weak conviction.
• Bollinger Bands widened overnight as volatility spiked, with price closing below the 20-period lower band.
• Notional turnover peaked at 0.698 (15:30 PM ET) and 0.660 (13:30 PM ET), highlighting key liquidity points.

At 12:00 ET on 2025-11-03, Manchester City Fan Token/Tether (CITYUSDT) opened at 0.685, reached a high of 0.698, touched a low of 0.639, and closed at 0.664. Total volume for the 24-hour window was 1,002,254.65, with total turnover amounting to $664,821.33. A clear bearish bias emerged after a sharp correction from mid-range levels, particularly after 3:30 PM ET.

Structure & Formations

Price action over the past 24 hours revealed key support levels forming around 0.660–0.665, with a previous pivot zone observed at 0.675–0.680. A bearish engulfing pattern emerged around 3:30 PM ET, confirming a breakdown from mid-range consolidation. A doji candle appeared at 0.664 near the 24-hour close, hinting at a potential short-term pause in selling momentum but not a reversal.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages crossed bearishly, with price trading well below both. On the daily time frame, the 50-period MA sits around 0.685, indicating that the current 0.664 level is a 6% retracement from that key moving average. The 200-period MA remains bearish, reinforcing the short-term bearish bias.

MACD & RSI

MACD turned negative after 3:00 PM ET, confirming the bearish breakdown. RSI dived below the 30 oversold threshold by 3:30 PM ET but failed to generate a significant bounce, suggesting exhaustion rather than a rebound. Momentum remains weak, with bearish divergence between price and RSI observed from 1:30 PM to 3:30 PM ET.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility surged overnight, with Bollinger Bands widening as price broke down from the upper band. The 20-period band width expanded from 0.006 to 0.018 between 3:30 PM and 5:00 AM ET. Price closed near the lower band at 0.664, indicating possible oversold conditions, though a reversal is not yet confirmed.

Volume & Turnover

Volume increased dramatically after 3:30 PM ET, with a large block at 0.660 and 0.698, signaling key liquidity zones. Notional turnover rose to $37,405.99 at 0.660 and $43,227.63 at 0.698. A divergence between volume and price action was observed during the 3:30–5:00 PM ET correction phase, indicating possible distribution by large players.

Fibonacci Retracements

The 24-hour swing from 0.639 to 0.698 saw price retrace to the 61.8% level (0.664) at the close. Key Fibonacci levels for the next 24 hours include 0.660 (38.2%), 0.675 (50%), and 0.685 (61.8%). A break below 0.660 would confirm a deeper correction, potentially testing 0.639 again.

Backtest Hypothesis

The provided backtest strategy focuses on using RSI to identify oversold conditions for potential long entries. While CITYUSDT’s RSI reached below 30 during the 24-hour window, it failed to produce a meaningful bounce, aligning with the concept that not all oversold levels result in reversals—a nuance often overlooked in basic RSI-based strategies. For a similar token or asset, ensuring the correct ticker symbol is crucial for accurate RSI data retrieval. If “HOLD.P” is not supported, consider using a core listing like “HOLD” or confirming the ticker against major data vendors. With accurate RSI data, we can re-run the backtest with buy signals at RSI < 30 and evaluate performance using a defined stop-loss or take-profit. Let me know if you’d like to proceed with this approach using the correct symbol.