Market Overview for Lombard/Tether (BARDUSDT) on 2025-10-09

• BARDUSDT fell from 0.7921 to 0.7107 amid heavy selling pressure, hitting a 24-hour low before a partial rebound.
• Momentum weakened with RSI and MACD showing bearish divergence and bearish crossovers.
• Volatility expanded significantly during the selloff, with Bollinger Bands widening and price near the lower band.
• Volume surged during the 08:15–08:30 ET window, coinciding with the largest price drop.
• Key support at 0.7107–0.7208 and resistance at 0.7275–0.7359 highlighted by Fibonacci and price action.

Lombard/Tether (BARDUSDT) opened at 0.7806 at 12:00 ET−1 and reached a high of 0.7921 before declining to a low of 0.7107 by 08:15 ET. The 24-hour close at 0.7236 marked a sharp correction. Total trading volume was 7.55 million units, with a notional turnover of ~$5.6 million during the session.

Structure & Formations

Price formed a bearish continuation pattern with a large bearish engulfing candle on the 15-minute chart at 08:15 ET, confirming a strong downward bias. A doji at 02:30 ET signaled indecision, but the trend resumed lower. Key support levels appear near 0.7107 (the 24-hour low) and 0.7208, while resistance lies at 0.7275 and 0.7359. The move from 0.7921 to 0.7107 aligns with a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, suggesting a potential pause or reversal.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period SMAs have been declining in tandem with price, indicating a strong bearish trend. On the daily chart, price remains below all major moving averages (50, 100, 200), reinforcing a long-term bearish outlook. A retest of the 50-day SMA (~0.75) may be expected in the coming sessions.

MACD & RSI

The 15-minute MACD turned bearish with a negative crossover and declining histogram, confirming the strength of the downtrend. RSI is in oversold territory (~25), but this divergence from price does not yet suggest a reversal—rather, it reflects exhaustion in the short term. A sustained move above 0.7300 may bring RSI into neutral ground and prompt a test of the 50-level as momentum reaccumulates.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands widened significantly during the selloff, with price reaching the lower band at 0.7107 before a minor rebound. The band contraction observed earlier in the session (pre 05:00 ET) suggested low volatility, followed by a breakout to the downside. The current wide band and price near the lower boundary reinforce the bearish pressure, though a retest of the upper band (~0.7350) could signal increasing volatility and potential reversal.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked sharply during the 08:15–08:30 ET window, when BARDUSDT fell from 0.7495 to 0.7197—a 6.6% drop. Notional turnover also rose sharply at that point, aligning with price action and confirming the bearish move. Later in the day, volume diminished during the rebound, suggesting a lack of conviction in the upward move. Divergence between price and volume may hint at a potential reversal if the trend continues.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the 0.7107–0.7921 swing, the 38.2% level (~0.746) and 50% level (~0.751) appear as potential support/resistance areas. The 61.8% level (~0.7208) was briefly tested before a rebound. On the daily chart, Fibonacci retracement levels from the recent swing high suggest a possible near-term support at ~0.725 and resistance at ~0.740.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy focuses on identifying key Fibonacci retracement levels (38.2%, 50%, 61.8%) combined with RSI and MACD divergence as confirmation signals. A long entry would be triggered if price bounces off a 61.8% support level with RSI above 40 and MACD showing a bullish crossover. A short entry would be triggered on a breakdown below a key Fibonacci level with RSI below 40 and MACD bearish. Given today’s action, a long entry near 0.7208 may be considered if the 15-minute MACD shows a bullish crossover and RSI remains above 40 in the next 24 hours.