Market Overview for Lombard/Tether (BARDUSDT) — 2025-10-08

• Price declined from 0.7954 to 0.7645 over the last 24 hours, closing near the session low.
• Momentum shifted from bearish to tentative bullish as RSI approached oversold levels.
• High volatility observed after 00:00 ET, with a sharp selloff followed by a partial rebound.
• Volume increased significantly during the selloff, confirming bearish sentiment.
• A potential short-term support level emerged around 0.762–0.765, with Fibonacci retracements suggesting possible bounce points.

At 12:00 ET on 2025-10-08, Lombard/Tether (BARDUSDT) opened at 0.7954, reached a high of 0.7954, a low of 0.7624, and closed at 0.7641. Total volume for the 24-hour period was 5.89 million, and notional turnover was approximately 4.50 million USD, reflecting elevated bearish pressure during the overnight selloff.

Structure & Formations

Price action over the last 24 hours featured a sharp bearish breakdown from 0.792 to 0.762, particularly between 00:15 ET and 03:00 ET. Key support levels formed around 0.765–0.768, while 0.772–0.775 acted as resistance during the early rebound. A bullish engulfing pattern appeared around 05:30 ET, indicating a potential short-term reversal. A doji near 0.768 at 08:00 ET also signaled indecision and possible consolidation. These patterns suggest that while bearish momentum remains dominant, signs of stabilization are emerging at lower levels.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages remained bearishly aligned, with the price trading well below both. On the daily timeframe, the 50, 100, and 200-period moving averages are converging, with the price near the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the recent bearish move. If BARDUSDT fails to retest above the 0.772–0.775 zone, it may test the next lower Fibonacci level at 0.755–0.760, which could trigger renewed bearish pressure.

MACD & RSI

The RSI dropped below 30 near 0.765, indicating oversold conditions, and showed a tentative bullish divergence. The MACD line turned negative after the overnight sell-off and began to flatten, suggesting weakening bearish momentum. The histogram has compressed in the last few hours, hinting at possible stabilization. If RSI holds above 30 and MACD shows a positive crossover, it could validate a short-term reversal.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly during the overnight sell-off, with the lower Bollinger Band dropping below 0.760. Price is currently hovering near the middle band and may attempt to retest the upper band at 0.772–0.775 in the next 24 hours. A successful rebound above the upper band could indicate a shift in sentiment and a potential breakout.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during the selloff, particularly between 00:15 and 03:00 ET, confirming bearish conviction. The high volume was accompanied by a notional turnover spike, indicating meaningful selling pressure rather than market noise. However, volume has remained relatively flat in the last 12 hours, suggesting a potential exhaustion of bearish momentum. A key observation is that volume and price are converging at current levels, supporting the possibility of a short-term bounce.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the key bearish leg from 0.792 to 0.762, the 61.8% level (0.772) has acted as a potential support/resistance pivot. A successful retest of this level could validate a short-term rebound, while a break below 0.760 would confirm a deeper bearish trend. On the daily chart, the 50% retracement of the larger trend is near 0.775, where traders may look for confirmation of trend continuation or reversal.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the recent Fibonacci alignment and oversold RSI conditions, a potential long bias could be tested at the 0.765–0.768 zone with a stop-loss below 0.760 and a target at 0.772–0.775. This strategy would rely on the bullish engulfing pattern and RSI divergence as entry triggers. A backtest over the last 30 days would assess whether such a setup has a positive risk-reward profile, particularly in consolidating markets where oversold levels often precede short-term reversals.