Market Overview: Livepeer/Yen (LPTJPY) 24-Hour Analysis

• Price fell sharply to ¥734.30 amid low volume, suggesting bearish momentum
• Bollinger Bands narrowed ahead of a large bearish move, signaling breakout
• RSI approached oversold levels with limited recovery, indicating potential reversal
• Turnover remained subdued, suggesting lack of conviction in the move

Livepeer/Yen (LPTJPY) opened at ¥800.00 on 2025-10-21 at 12:00 ET, reaching a high of ¥801.60 before declining to a low of ¥734.30 and closing at ¥734.30 on 2025-10-22 at 12:00 ET. Total volume was 628.14, with total turnover at ¥472,376. The 24-hour decline unfolded with a distinct bearish bias, punctuated by several low-volume bearish candlesticks and a lack of bullish follow-through.

Structure & Formations

Price action showed a strong bearish bias as it broke down through key psychological support levels around ¥750 and ¥740. A large bearish candle formed on 2025-10-22 at 05:30 ET, which saw a drop from ¥761.60 to ¥744.50. This was followed by a series of doji-like candles and bearish continuation patterns, particularly in the ¥734.30–738.10 range. The price appears to have consolidated briefly at the lower end of the range, suggesting a potential short-term support area.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages were both bearishly positioned, with the price falling well below both. The 20 MA crossed below the 50 MA during the early part of the 24-hour period, confirming a bearish crossover. On the daily chart, the 50/100/200 MA lines were also bearishly aligned, with no signs of short-term reversal in the near term.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line turned negative early in the session, with the histogram shrinking as the price moved lower, indicating weakening bullish momentum and strengthening bearish pressure. The RSI approached oversold territory, dipping below 30 for the first time at the end of the 24-hour period. However, the lack of a strong rebound suggests the market is hesitant to commit to a reversal. The RSI remains near critical oversold levels, hinting that a bounce could be due, but with a high risk of continuation of the downward trend.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility contracted sharply in the ¥787.40–791.30 range during the late evening hours, before a sharp break lower. This contraction was followed by a significant move outside the lower band, signaling a strong bearish breakout. The price closed near the lower band, indicating extreme weakness, with no signs of re-entry into the band. A retest of this level could provide a short-term entry point if a reversal materializes.

Volume & Turnover

Volume was extremely light during the initial bearish breakdown, suggesting a lack of conviction. However, the largest volume spike occurred during the 05:30 ET candle, where the price dropped from ¥761.60 to ¥744.50. Notional turnover was moderate, with little divergence between price and turnover. The low volume during the bearish move suggests the decline was driven by a few large orders rather than broad market sentiment.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the most recent 15-minute swing, the 61.8% retracement level sits near ¥740.60, which aligns with the consolidation observed during the final hours. On the daily chart, the 61.8% retracement of a larger bullish move lies near ¥745.00. If the price finds support at these levels, it could indicate a short-term reversal. However, given the bearish momentum and low volume, continuation below these levels is also a real risk.

Backtest Hypothesis

The proposed strategy uses RSI as a signal for entry and exit, with entries below 30 and exits on RSI ≥ 30 the following day. This approach aligns with the current market conditions, as the RSI is near the 30 level and may trigger a potential long entry if a bounce is confirmed. The strategy could benefit from incorporating a trailing stop or additional volatility filter to manage risk, particularly given the recent bearish momentum and low turnover. The exact ticker symbol must be confirmed for accurate data retrieval, and the use of daily close prices is recommended for consistency with the RSI calculation.