Market Overview for Livepeer/Yen (LPTJPY) – 2025-10-06

• LPTJPY opened at 958.8 and surged to 1000.3, driven by late-day volume and bullish momentum.
• RSI rose into overbought territory, signaling potential short-term profit-taking.
• Volatility expanded on a 5.3% move from 949.8 to 1000.3 amid heavy 15-minute volume spikes.
• Bollinger Bands widened, indicating heightened price action and trend continuation risks.
• A bullish engulfing pattern formed near key resistance at 960.5, confirming a breakout.

The 24-hour period for LPTJPY began at 958.8 and closed at 1000.3, with a high of 1000.3 and a low of 949.8. Total volume reached 50,576.97, and notional turnover amounted to ¥49,127,725.19. The pair showed a strong upward bias, especially after 21:00 ET, where aggressive buying pressure pushed price past the 960.5 psychological level. A bullish engulfing pattern confirmed this breakout, suggesting continued strength in the near term.

Structure & Formations

Key support levels identified include 949.8 and 956.5, both of which held during intraday retracements. Resistance levels at 960.5, 970.6, and 980.6 were sequentially broken. A doji at 00:15 ET and another at 06:45 ET indicated indecision during pullbacks, while a large bullish candle at 06:15 ET confirmed strong buying at 975.8. The 15-minute chart showed a multi-wave rally, with each impulse wave confirming higher lows and higher highs.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the price closed above both the 20- and 50-period moving averages, indicating a bullish bias. The 20SMA moved from 959.6 to 975.3 during the session, suggesting accelerating momentum. On the daily chart, while 50DMA was not available, the 100DMA would likely sit near 950–960, and the 200DMA would be significantly lower, supporting the current rally as part of a larger upswing.

MACD & RSI

The MACD crossed above zero mid-session and remained in positive territory through the close, confirming bullish momentum. RSI climbed past 70 in the final hours, indicating overbought conditions. While this may invite profit-taking, the strong volume suggests the move is backed by fundamental conviction rather than speculative buying.

Bollinger Bands

The Bollinger Bands widened significantly as the price moved from 949.8 to 1000.3, indicating a period of high volatility. The upper band expanded above 990, and the lower band moved above 960, placing the close near the upper edge. This suggests a potential retest of the 970.6–980.6 range as a new consolidation zone. A sustained move above 1000.3 would signal a continuation of the upward trend.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged in two key waves: one around 21:00 ET and another around 06:15 ET. Both were associated with sharp price increases and large open/close spreads. Turnover spiked correspondingly, confirming that buying pressure was backed by strong liquidity. The absence of price-volume divergence suggests a continuation of the trend is likely unless a large counter-trend volume spike emerges.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the 949.8–1000.3 swing, key levels at 981.9 (23.6%), 976.7 (38.2%), and 966.4 (50%) were all tested. The price retested 976.7 on the way up and held above it, suggesting 966.4 may offer a meaningful support if a pullback occurs. The 61.8% level at 959.3 is likely to act as a key psychological threshold for a deeper correction.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy would involve entering long on a bullish engulfing pattern confirmation at key resistance levels, such as the 960.5 and 970.6 levels. A stop-loss could be placed below the most recent support at 956.5 or 949.8, depending on volatility. A take-profit target could be set at the next Fibonacci level or the upper Bollinger Band. This approach aligns with the observed price-volume confirmation and MACD/RSI signals, providing a structured method to leverage the current bullish bias.