Market Overview for Livepeer/Tether (LPTUSDT) – 2025-10-28

• Price dipped from $5.248 to $4.995 before rebounding to $5.159
• Key support levels confirmed at $5.094 and $5.06
• Volume spiked during the early sell-off but waned during the rebound
• RSI showed overbought conditions during the rally and oversold during the dip
• MACD remained bearish with a negative divergence in late hours

LPTUSDT opened at $5.133 at 12:00 ET-1 and reached a high of $5.248 before hitting a low of $4.995. The price closed at $5.159 by 12:00 ET today. Over the 24-hour period, total trading volume reached 211,037.79 units, with notional turnover at approximately $1.08 million, indicating moderate activity.

The structure of the 15-minute chart reveals a bearish bias over most of the session. A key bearish engulfing pattern formed on the 16:00 ET-1 to 16:15 ET-1 candle, suggesting a potential reversal in a bullish trend. The price then fell sharply, reaching the intraday low at 23:45 ET-1 at $4.995. A bullish reversal began forming from the $4.995 low, with a strong candle on 00:00 ET-1 to 00:15 ET-1 closing at $5.063. This may suggest a possible short-term bottoming process.

Key support levels identified include $5.094 and $5.06, with the latter showing multiple confirmations in the late night and early morning session. Resistance levels are at $5.156 and $5.207, with the 5.207 level appearing to have acted as a strong countertrend high before the price retreated. A 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the 5.248–4.995 swing is at $5.11, aligning with the 50-day moving average if this were a daily chart.

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart show a bearish crossover for much of the session, reinforcing the sell bias. MACD remained bearish throughout the early and mid-session, but a potential bullish divergence appeared in the late-night to early-morning hours as the price hit and rebounded off the $5.06 level. RSI dipped into oversold territory at $4.995 and moved back toward neutral ground as the price rose, suggesting a possible short-term rebound. Bollinger Bands showed a moderate expansion during the early sell-off, with the price hovering near the lower band, indicating heightened volatility. A contraction followed during the rebound, signaling a potential consolidation phase.

Backtest Hypothesis

Based on today's price action, a backtest could be structured to test the effectiveness of a Bearish Engulfing pattern as a short signal, closing the position at the next confirmed support level. For instance, if a Bearish Engulfing forms near a prior resistance level and the price breaks below it, a short could be opened. The exit would be triggered at the nearest confirmed support (e.g., $5.06 or $5.094). A stop-loss at 2.5% above entry could be used to limit downside risk. Daily close pricing would be used for signal detection, and the test could include a holding period of 5 days if the target isn’t hit. The strategy would be applied to LPTUSDT from 2022-01-03 to 2025-10-27.