Market Overview for Litecoin/Tether (LTCUSDT) on 2025-09-15

• LTC/USDT opened at $114.83, surged to a high of $116.76, then declined to a low of $112.41 before closing at $113.62 by 12:00 ET.
• Price formed a bullish engulfing pattern around $115.10–$115.25 and a bearish harami near $116.64–$116.59.
• RSI hit overbought (80+) during the morning highs and oversold (20–) during the late afternoon decline.
• Volatility expanded as Bollinger Bands widened from $114.75–$115.23 to $112.41–$116.76.
• Notional turnover reached $391.5 million, with the largest spike during the $113.4–$114.08 rebound at 08:15 ET.

Structure & Formations

Litecoin/Tether (LTCUSDT) experienced a volatile 24-hour session, with the price forming distinct candlestick patterns that highlight potential turning points. A strong bullish engulfing pattern was observed between 00:00 and 00:15 ET, as the price surged from $115.10 to $115.51, signaling a short-term bullish bias. Later, a bearish harami formed between 06:00 and 06:15 ET, with the close at $116.59 and open at $116.64, hinting at near-term distribution.

Key support levels emerged at $112.82, $113.27, and $113.50, while resistance was clearly tested at $114.08, $114.75, and $115.39. These levels are likely to be watched closely as the market tests them again in the near term.

Moving Averages (15-Min Chart)

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages showed a bearish crossover between 09:00 and 10:00 ET, with the 20-period MA dipping below the 50-period MA. The price remained below both lines during the session's lower half, reinforcing the bearish momentum.

Daily Chart MA

On the daily chart, the 50-period and 200-period moving averages both crossed below the 100-period line at the close of the 2025-09-14 session, suggesting a potential shift into bearish territory. The 200-period MA is currently at $114.90, acting as a critical long-term support.

MACD & RSI

The MACD histogram showed a bearish divergence during the early morning highs, with momentum waning despite price increasing. RSI confirmed this, hitting overbought levels of 80+ during the 05:30–06:00 ET window and then collapsing into oversold territory by 07:45–08:00 ET. This suggests the market may be consolidating after the morning breakout.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly during the 24-hour period, with the Bollinger Bands widening from a narrow range of $114.75–$115.23 to a much broader $112.41–$116.76. The price spent a large portion of the session near the lower band, especially from 08:00 to 11:45 ET, indicating oversold conditions and potential for a rebound.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the afternoon and early evening, particularly between 07:45–08:00 ET, as the price rebounded from $113.75 to $114.08. This volume confirmed the rebound and suggests strong interest at those levels. However, divergence appeared during the morning highs, where volume was relatively moderate despite a sharp price increase, indicating possible distribution.

Total notional turnover for the session was $391.5 million, with the largest spike occurring during the 08:00–08:15 ET rebound. This highlights a key area of market interest that could become a focal point for further price action.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the 15-minute swing from $112.41 to $116.76, key levels are at 38.2% ($114.98), 50% ($114.59), and 61.8% ($114.19). The price tested the 38.2% and 50% levels during the afternoon and evening and appears to have found support at the 61.8% level by the end of the session.

On the daily chart, the 61.8% retracement level from a recent high of $116.76 to a low of $112.41 is at $114.59, aligning with key support seen in the 15-minute chart.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the observed patterns and divergences, a potential backtesting hypothesis would involve using the 20-period and 50-period MA on the 15-minute chart to generate trend-following signals. Long entries could be triggered when the 20-period MA crosses above the 50-period MA, and exits when it crosses back below. This strategy would be complemented by RSI thresholds (70 for overbought exit, 30 for oversold entry) and Bollinger Band width to filter out low-volatility or range-bound conditions.

This approach would aim to capture the morning rally and early afternoon pullback, as seen in the 2025-09-15 session, while avoiding trades during the late afternoon distribution phase. Testing this over a 60-day period would help assess its viability in different market conditions.