Market Overview: Linea/Turkish Lira (LINEATRY) – September 20, 2025

• LINEATRY posted a 24-hour high of 1.3552 before declining to close near 1.2179, reflecting bearish momentum.
• Volatility expanded in early ET hours, followed by a contraction into late afternoon, suggesting consolidation.
• RSI hit oversold territory in the overnight session, indicating potential for a short-term rebound.
• Volume surged in early ET before tapering, suggesting waning conviction in the downward move.
• Bollinger Bands show price near the lower band, signaling a potential test of key support.

The Linea/Turkish Lira pair (LINEATRY) opened at 1.2848 on September 19 at 16:00 ET, reaching a high of 1.3552, before settling near 1.2179 at 12:00 ET on September 20. The 24-hour period saw a total volume of approximately 337,336,660.0 TRY and a notional turnover of ~$438,537,464.3 (est., based on closing prices), highlighting the bearish pressure over the past 24 hours. The price has followed a pronounced bearish wave, with a sharp drop from the 1.3304–1.3552 highs into the 1.2080–1.2179 range.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute chart revealed a series of bearish reversal patterns such as dark cloud cover and engulfing patterns, especially between 17:30 and 19:30 ET, when the price dropped from ~1.3304 to ~1.2387. Key support levels have formed near 1.2448, 1.2278, and 1.2179, with the latter acting as a temporary floor in the last 45 minutes of the report. Resistance levels at 1.2511 and 1.2533 have failed to hold in the last hour, suggesting a potential short-term bounce.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages are in a steep downtrend, with prices consistently below both. On the daily chart, if a 50-period, 100-period, and 200-period SMA were plotted, they would all likely be sloping downward, reinforcing the bearish bias. The price remains well below the 50-EMA, indicating a continuation of the bear trend.

MACD & RSI

MACD has remained negative throughout the 24-hour period, with a recent bearish crossover and a weak histogram indicating a lack of momentum. RSI has recently dipped below 30, into oversold territory, suggesting a potential pullback or bounce. However, given the bearish setup, a retest of lower support levels remains probable unless volume increases significantly with a reversal pattern.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded in the early hours of the report as the price dropped from ~1.3304 to ~1.2411 within 2.5 hours. Since then, volatility has contracted, and the current price of ~1.2179 is near the lower Bollinger Band. This positioning suggests that the market is testing the lower boundary, and a break below it could trigger a deeper correction, though a rebound is also possible.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked early in the decline (e.g., between 17:00–19:00 ET) but has since diminished, with the latest 15-minute candle at 16:00 ET on September 20 showing relatively low volume despite a significant price move from 1.2292 to 1.2179. This divergence may indicate a lack of conviction or a potential reversal. However, the falling price amid decreasing volume typically signals a consolidation phase.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the recent 1.3304–1.2080 decline, the 23.6% level is around 1.2822, the 38.2% is near 1.2585, and the 61.8% level is at 1.2337. The price has bounced off the 61.8% level twice, suggesting a possible short-term bounce to 1.2434–1.2511 is possible if the 1.2179 level holds.

Backtest Hypothesis

The described backtesting strategy involves entering a short position on a bearish engulfing pattern confirmed by a close below the 20-EMA on the 15-minute chart, with a stop above the recent high and a target at the nearest Fibonacci level. The recent drop from ~1.3304 to ~1.2080 would have triggered such a signal around 17:30–18:30 ET, with a stop above ~1.334 and a target near ~1.2337. If applied, the strategy would have yielded a positive outcome on this swing. However, the success of the strategy would depend on the accuracy of the 20-EMA and the strength of the bearish setup.