Market Overview for Linea/Turkish Lira (LINEATRY)

• LINEATRY opened at 1.1692 and traded between 1.135 and 1.2274, closing at 1.1760 by 12:00 ET.
• A notable bullish reversal pattern emerged around 1.165–1.170, confirming short-term support after intraday declines.
• Momentum remained mixed, with RSI hovering near neutral territory and MACD showing no strong divergence.
• Volatility expanded during the 20:00–02:00 ET window, peaking at 1.2274 before consolidating into tighter ranges.
• Volume spiked during the 07:00–09:00 ET window as price tested 1.20–1.21, but declined after the 15:00 ET consolidation.

The Linea/Turkish Lira (LINEATRY) pair opened at 1.1692 at 12:00 ET−1 and reached a high of 1.2274 before settling at 1.1760 at 12:00 ET. Total volume traded over the 24-hour period was approximately 144,935,900 units, with a notional turnover estimated at around 145,935,900 TRY. The price action reflected a volatile session driven by a sharp rally from 1.18 to 1.2274, followed by consolidation and a pullback toward the 1.17–1.18 level.

The 15-minute chart displayed a clear bullish engulfing pattern at the 1.167–1.170 level, suggesting short-term support held during the late-night and early morning hours. On the longer timeframes, 50-period and 200-period moving averages were not clearly defined due to the fast-paced nature of the 15-minute data, but the price consistently traded above the 20-period MA, indicating a short-term uptrend. A bearish divergence was observed between the RSI and price action between 02:00 and 06:00 ET, signaling potential overbought conditions during the upward leg of the move.

Bollinger Bands expanded significantly during the 07:00–09:00 ET rally, with price reaching the upper band at 1.2151 before retracting. This suggests a period of high volatility, followed by a return to a more compressed range. Fibonacci retracement levels from the 1.1672–1.2274 swing showed key levels at 1.1896 (38.2%) and 1.1996 (50%), both of which were respected as price consolidated. The 61.8% level at 1.2134 remained a key resistance, with price failing to retest it after the consolidation phase.

The MACD remained bullish for much of the session, with the line crossing above the signal line during the 07:00–08:00 ET window. However, as the price pulled back from 1.2274 to 1.1760, the MACD histogram began to contract, indicating weakening momentum. The RSI oscillated between 35 and 70, failing to enter overbought territory for sustained periods, and remained within a moderate range. Volume showed a strong correlation with price during the 07:00–09:00 ET window but declined as the price retreated. This divergence suggests a lack of conviction in the upward move.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could focus on the bullish engulfing pattern observed at the 1.167–1.170 level, combined with the 50% Fibonacci retracement at 1.1996. The idea would be to enter long upon a breakout above the 1.1996 level with a stop-loss placed just below the 1.1800 support zone. A take-profit could be set at the 1.2075–1.2100 range, aligning with the 61.8% retracement and the upper Bollinger Band. This approach would require filtering for strong volume confirmation during the breakout and ensuring that the RSI and MACD show no bearish divergence before entry.