Market Overview: Linea/Turkish Lira (LINEATRY) 24-Hour Performance

Summary
• LINEATRY opened at 0.5278, reached 0.5761, and closed at 0.5057, showing a volatile but downward-biased 24-hour session.
• Key resistance appears at ~0.5457 and support at ~0.5150 based on 15-minute swing data.
• Volume surged during midday ET but faded toward the session close, indicating waning conviction.

Market Overview

Linea/Turkish Lira (LINEATRY) opened at 0.5278 on 2025-11-05 at 12:00 ET and closed at 0.5057 the following day at the same time. The price reached a high of 0.5761 and hit a low of 0.5030, marking a 24-hour range of approximately 0.0731. The total notional turnover amounted to ~155,813,000 TRY, with volume peaking at 26,268,193 LINEA during the 17:30 ET candle. Despite a sharp intraday rebound, bearish momentum has regained control as the closing price sits near the lower end of the range.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute chart reveals multiple key levels and patterns. A bullish engulfing pattern formed at 0.5393 (17:45 ET) as LINEATRY reversed higher after a pullback. However, this was followed by a bearish reversal at 0.5308 (19:30 ET), confirming weakness. A doji formed at 0.5229 (20:30 ET), signaling indecision and potential exhaustion of near-term buyers. A large bearish candle at 0.5207 (21:15 ET) and a sharp breakdown at 0.516 (00:30 ET) on 2025-11-06 marked the final leg of the session’s decline.

Moving Averages and MACD/RSI

LINEATRY closed below both the 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart, suggesting short-term bearish alignment. The MACD histogram turned negative around 01:00 ET, with bearish divergence evident in the MACD line and signal line cross. RSI dipped into oversold territory (<30) near 05:30 ET and again at 06:00 ET, yet failed to trigger a strong bounce, indicating weak follow-through buying.

Bollinger Bands and Fibonacci Retracements

Volatility expanded significantly during the 17:30 ET candle, with LINEATRY breaking above the upper Bollinger Band at 0.5761 before retreating below the 20-period MA. As the price fell, it retested the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of ~0.5150, but failed to hold it, closing below at 0.5057. This suggests continued bearish momentum with potential for a test of prior support at ~0.5000.

Volume and Turnover

Volume was uneven across the day, with a massive 26,268,193 LINEA traded during the 17:30 ET candle when LINEATRY hit 0.5761. This suggests accumulation or short-term speculative activity. However, as the price declined toward the session close, volume dropped significantly, signaling waning conviction. Turnover also declined toward the close, with a final candle of 1,064,624 LINEA at 10:00 ET.

Backtest Hypothesis

The provided backtest strategy is based on RSI-based entry and exit signals, with entry at RSI(14) < 30 and a 3-day holding period. Given LINEATRY's recent RSI behavior—especially the repeated dips into oversold territory without strong follow-through—this strategy could provide an objective test of whether the pair tends to rebound from oversold levels. The strategy would need to be tested with accurate historical data for LINEATRY. If the data confirms such a pattern, investors might consider entering long positions at RSI < 30, while being cautious of false signals during low-volume periods, as seen in the final hours of the session.