Market Overview for Linea/Turkish Lira (LINEATRY) – 2025-10-08

• LINEATRY traded in a tight range early, then dropped 1.8% before finding a mid-day rebound.
• RSI reached oversold levels, suggesting short-term bearish exhaustion.
• Volatility expanded sharply after 19:00 ET, with a 1.5% low before reversing.
• Bollinger Bands showed a contraction before the break, hinting at consolidation.
• Turnover spiked during the low, showing increased participation despite falling prices.

The Linea/Turkish Lira (LINEATRY) pair opened at 1.095 on 2025-10-07 at 12:00 ET and reached a high of 1.1131 during the session, before dropping to a low of 1.0843 and closing at 1.0852 on 2025-10-08 at 12:00 ET. Total volume for the 24-hour period was 92,378,807.0, with a notional turnover of approximately 97,835,963.1 TRL.

Structure & Formations

LINEATRY exhibited a bearish breakdown between 19:00 and 22:00 ET, with key support identified at 1.090 and resistance at 1.105. A bearish engulfing pattern emerged around 19:00, signaling a shift in sentiment. A doji at 00:00 on 2025-10-08 marked a potential reversal point in the overnight session. The price action suggests a consolidation phase after a sharp bearish leg.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period moving average (1.097) is below the 50-period (1.099), indicating a short-term bearish bias. On the daily chart, the 50-period (1.099) is slightly above the 100-period (1.097) and 200-period (1.096), suggesting a mixed outlook. The price remains below all three key daily moving averages, reinforcing the bearish sentiment.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line crossed below the signal line at 20:00 ET, confirming a bearish crossover. The histogram showed a divergence with price at the end of the session, which may signal a weakening bearish momentum. RSI reached 28, indicating oversold territory, with a potential for a short-term rebound. However, RSI remains below 50, suggesting a continued bearish tone.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly from 19:00 to 21:00 ET, with the upper band at 1.105 and the lower band at 1.085. Price tested the lower band multiple times, especially between 19:30 and 20:30 ET. A sharp contraction in the bands occurred before the breakdown, indicating potential for a breakout. Price is currently near the lower band, hinting at oversold conditions.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during the sharp decline from 1.105 to 1.084, with one 15-minute interval showing 1.8M+ volume. This spike in volume confirmed the bearish move rather than contradicting it. Turnover mirrored this pattern, peaking around the 1.0843 low. A divergence between price and volume appears unlikely, as both volume and price moved in tandem during the breakdown.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying the 15-minute retracement levels to the swing high at 1.1131 and swing low at 1.0843, key levels at 38.2% (1.0978), 50% (1.0987), and 61.8% (1.100) were tested during the overnight recovery. The 61.8% level may act as a strong resistance, while the 38.2% level could offer support on a pullback.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the observed bearish engulfing pattern and a subsequent RSI bottoming near 28, a potential entry setup would involve shorting the pair at the close of the bearish candle with a stop above the 1.1052 resistance level and a target at the 1.0843 support. This approach aligns with the Fibonacci 61.8% retracement level as a probable reversal point. A trailing stop could be employed once the target is hit to lock in gains during the expected consolidation phase. This strategy would benefit from high volatility and increased volume during trend continuation phases.