Market Overview: Lido DAO/Tether (LDOUSDT) – Volatility, Breakouts, and Rebound Potential

• LDOUSDT fell from 0.8735 to 0.7651, down 12.4%, amid a broad selloff from 15:30 ET.
• Price hit key Fibonacci levels (0.7968, 0.7651) and tested critical support at 0.728.
• Volume surged 380% at 15:30 ET as sellers accelerated through key levels.
• RSI signaled oversold conditions near 15–20, hinting at potential rebound.
• Volatility expanded sharply with wide Bollinger Band breaks and divergent price-volume flow.

The LDOUSDT pair opened at 0.8712 on 2025-11-02 12:00 ET and closed at 0.8041 on 2025-11-03 12:00 ET, forming a bearish trend with a 24-hour high of 0.8735 and a low of 0.728. Total trading volume reached 15,291,749.31 and turnover was approximately $12.1M. The market appears to have tested strong Fibonacci support levels and could face a short-term bounce from oversold RSI levels.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute chart displayed a strong bearish bias from 15:30 ET as LDOUSDT dropped sharply from 0.7991 to 0.7651. Key Fibonacci retracements (61.8% at 0.7651, 76.4% at 0.743) were hit during the sell-off. A bearish engulfing pattern formed at 0.8108–0.8058 (09:45–10:00 ET), reinforcing the downward trend. A doji at 15:30 ET (0.7651) hinted at potential exhaustion among sellers. The 0.728 level is a critical support; a close below could signal deeper bearish momentum.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period SMAs crossed below key price levels during the 15:30 ET selloff, reinforcing bearish momentum. Daily chart analysis showed the 50, 100, and 200-period SMAs forming a bearish alignment, with price below all three. This confirms a medium-term bearish bias and suggests a continuation of the downward trend unless a strong reversal occurs.

MACD & RSI

MACD turned negative during the sell-off from 15:30 ET, signaling bearish momentum. RSI reached oversold levels near 15–20 by 16:00 ET, suggesting a potential short-term rebound. A divergence between RSI and price (RSI rising while price fell at 17:00 ET) could indicate near-term exhaustion in the downward move. The RSI is currently at 22, and a rebound to 30 could mark a short-term entry point for longs.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly after 15:30 ET as the Bollinger Bands widened and price dropped below the lower band, confirming oversold conditions. The 0.7651 level tested the lower band and appeared to bounce slightly. Price remained within the bands until the 16:00–17:00 ET period, where a contraction could signal a potential reversal or continuation of the trend.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked sharply at 15:30 ET (over 1.65M), confirming the bearish break. Turnover also increased dramatically, reaching $12.1M during the 15:30–16:00 ET session. This suggests a coordinated move by institutional sellers. A volume divergence at 17:00 ET (rising RSI but falling volume) could indicate weakening bearish pressure. Overall, volume and turnover align with the bearish price action.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci retracements highlighted key levels during the 15-minute selloff. Price dropped to the 61.8% level at 0.7651 and then to the 76.4% level at 0.743. On the daily chart, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement from the 2024–2025 high is at 0.715, which is now the next critical support. A bounce from the 0.728 level could test the 0.743–0.7651 range again, while a break below could extend the move toward the 0.715 level.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy described aims to exploit RSI-based mean reversion in the LDOUSDT pair. Given the current RSI near 22, this strategy could be relevant for identifying a potential short-term bottom. To proceed, a supported LDO/USDT pair—such as BINANCE:LDOUSDT or COINBASE:LDOUSD—must be confirmed to ensure access to reliable price data. Once the symbol is verified, the 14-period RSI can be calculated, and trade signals generated accordingly. The performance report will include entry/exit dates, returns, and risk metrics from 2022-01-01 to 2025-11-03.