Market Overview for Kyber Network Crystal v2/Tether (KNCUSDT)

• KNC/USDT declined over 24 hours, closing near session low after a volatile midday push above 0.344.
• Momentum cooled in the afternoon, with RSI entering oversold territory and volume declining.
• Key support appears near 0.338–0.3403, with a potential test of 0.338 seen in early trading.
• Volatility remained moderate, with price trading within a descending trend channel.
• Turnover spiked near the high of 0.3464, suggesting a possible distribution phase.

KNCUSDT opened at 0.338 on 2025-10-02 12:00 ET, reached a high of 0.3464, dipped to a low of 0.3384, and closed at 0.3407 on 2025-10-03 12:00 ET. The 24-hour volume totaled 1,168,753.3 KNC, with a notional turnover of $402,569.30.

The 15-minute chart shows a complex price structure, with a bullish breakout in the late morning followed by a gradual consolidation phase. A key support level appears to form around 0.3403–0.3415, while resistance is currently stalled at 0.344–0.3464. A bearish engulfing pattern formed around the 0.344–0.3454 area, suggesting a shift in sentiment. A doji at 0.3422 also indicates indecision. The price appears to be testing the lower boundary of a descending channel, with potential for a retest of 0.338–0.3403 in the near term.

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart have converged, with the 50-period line slightly above the 20-period line, indicating a mild bearish bias. The 50-period MA on the daily chart is also above the 200-period line, reinforcing a medium-term downtrend. Price is currently below both moving averages, suggesting a continuation of bearish momentum could be expected.

The RSI on the 15-minute chart closed near oversold territory, signaling a potential short-term rebound. However, the MACD remains bearish, with the line below the signal line and a negative divergence forming in the afternoon. Bollinger Bands show moderate volatility, with price sitting near the lower band in the final hours of the session. This could imply a possible reversal in the short term but remains consistent with the prevailing downtrend.

Fibonacci retracements applied to the recent 15-minute move from 0.338 to 0.3464 show the 0.3427 level as the 38.2% retracement and 0.3446 as the 61.8% level. Price appears to have stalled near 0.3446, which may serve as a near-term resistance. Daily-level retracements from a broader downtrend (not included in the dataset) could see 0.3385–0.3405 as a potential consolidation zone.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential strategy could involve entering short positions on a break below the 0.3403–0.3415 support zone, with a stop above the 0.3423–0.3446 resistance area. This approach would align with the bearish momentum seen in the RSI and MACD, while volume data confirms activity near these key levels. A profit target could be set at 0.338–0.3385, based on Fibonacci retracement levels and historical price behavior. Given the current setup, this hypothesis appears to offer a defined risk-reward profile, though it remains subject to a potential bullish reversal if the RSI fails to confirm oversold conditions with follow-through buying.