Market Overview: Kyber Network Crystal v2/Tether (KNCUSDT)

• KNCUSDT closed lower after forming a bearish engulfing pattern near key resistance.
• Momentum weakened as RSI moved into oversold territory, hinting at potential reversal.
• Volatility dipped into Bollinger Band contraction, signaling a potential breakout phase.
• Turnover surged at 00:00 ET, coinciding with a sharp price spike.
• Price remains within a descending channel, with support at 0.3945–0.3955 and resistance at 0.3985–0.3995.

Kyber Network Crystal v2/Tether (KNCUSDT) opened at 0.3986 on 2025-09-13 12:00 ET and closed at 0.3948 on 2025-09-14 12:00 ET, with a 24-hour high of 0.4026 and a low of 0.3931. Total 15-minute volume was 638,194.8 with a notional turnover of 251,363.4 USD.

Structure & Formations

Price formed a bearish engulfing pattern near 0.3991–0.3996 at the end of the bullish afternoon session, followed by a sharp retest that failed to confirm the breakout. Key support levels at 0.3955, 0.3945, and 0.3935 have held in multiple 15-minute bars. A descending channel from 0.3995 to 0.3931 has been in effect since the morning, with price likely to test 0.3925 next if the trend continues.

A doji formed at 0.3973 during the early morning, indicating indecision and potential reversal. The Fibonacci 61.8% level at 0.3955 has coincided with multiple reversals in the last 24 hours, reinforcing its role as a key support.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period SMA has been bearish and crossed below the 50-period SMA, confirming a short-term downtrend. On the daily chart, the 50-period SMA remains above the 100- and 200-period SMAs, suggesting the broader trend is still in consolidation.

Price is trading below both the 20 and 50 SMAs, which could signal continued pressure to test the next Fibonacci level at 0.3925 over the next 24 hours.

MACD & RSI

The MACD crossed bearishly below the signal line during the evening, with a bearish divergence forming as price rebounded but failed to confirm higher momentum. The RSI has since dropped into oversold territory, currently at 35, indicating potential for a near-term bounce if volume surges at 0.3955.

A divergence between RSI and price action around 0.3975–0.3970 in the early morning suggested a bearish continuation, which was later confirmed with a sharp decline to 0.3948.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility has been contracting tightly in the early morning hours, with the Bollinger Bands narrowing to 0.0009 range at 0.3962–0.3971, signaling a potential breakout. Price currently rests just below the lower band at 0.3948, suggesting it may attempt a retest of the 0.3955 level with potential to rebound.

Volume & Turnover

Turnover spiked sharply at 00:00 ET with a 25,221.1 USD notional transaction, coinciding with a move from 0.4015 to 0.4020. The volume-to-price divergence here is notable, as it suggests a bearish continuation could follow after the initial bullish move.

Volumes remain elevated during the late-night hours, but drop off significantly during the early morning and midday hours, indicating reduced participation during these periods.

Fibonacci Retracements

On the 15-minute chart, the 61.8% Fibonacci level at 0.3955 has acted as a critical support level, with multiple rejections occurring at that level. On the daily chart, the 38.2% level at 0.3975 has coincided with a failed bullish attempt in the early morning, reinforcing the bearish bias.

Price may continue to test the 0.3935–0.3925 zone if the current trend remains intact, with a potential bounce likely if the 61.8% level holds.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could focus on using a combination of Fibonacci retracements and RSI divergence to identify high-probability reversal points. For example, a short entry could be triggered when price fails to close above the 61.8% retracement level (0.3955) and RSI shows bearish divergence, with a stop-loss above the 50% level and a take-profit at 0.3925.

The descending channel and volume profile also support a sell-on-close strategy during early morning hours when volatility is highest, paired with a trailing stop to protect gains during potential bounces. This approach could be refined by incorporating MACD confirmation for entry and exit signals, ensuring alignment with both trend and momentum.