Market Overview for Kyber Network Crystal v2/Tether (KNCUSDT) on 2025-09-16

• KNCUSDT rose 1.14% over 24 hours, closing at 0.3754 after a bullish breakout above key resistance.
• High volatility and volume spikes suggest active accumulation, with a 15-minute RSI approaching overbought territory.
• Price tested and held above 0.3700–0.3710 support, reinforcing bullish momentum and potential for a retest of 0.3775–0.3780.
• Bollinger Band expansion indicates heightened volatility, while MACD crossover suggests possible continuation of the trend.
• Fibonacci levels at 0.3762 and 0.3775 show initial resistance, with divergences in volume hinting at potential pullbacks.

The KNCUSDT pair opened at 0.3691 on 2025-09-15 12:00 ET and closed at 0.3754 by 2025-09-16 12:00 ET, reaching a high of 0.3781 and a low of 0.3647. Total volume amounted to 819,508.0 and notional turnover was approximately $301,362 across the 24-hour period. The pair showed a clear upward bias with key support and resistance levels tested multiple times.

Structure & Formations

Price action on the 15-minute chart showed a series of bullish consolidations and breakouts above the 0.3700–0.3710 level, which appeared as a key support cluster. Notable patterns included a bullish engulfing candle at 0.3746–0.3749 and a takuri pattern at 0.3671–0.3680 suggesting accumulation. A clear higher high and higher low formation from 0.3700 to 0.3781 reinforced the bullish sentiment.

Moving Averages

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart crossed above the price, indicating a strong bullish bias. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA crossed above the 100-period and 200-period MAs, suggesting a longer-term uptrend is gaining traction. Price remains comfortably above all these averages, which could act as dynamic support levels.

MACD & RSI

The MACD histogram showed a recent bullish crossover with a positive divergence in the line, reinforcing the upward momentum. The RSI on the 15-minute chart approached the 70 level multiple times, indicating overbought conditions, but price has yet to correct, suggesting strong demand. A pullback may be imminent but could serve as a re-entry opportunity for long positions.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could involve taking long positions at the close of a bullish engulfing candle near a key support level, with a stop loss placed below the nearest swing low and a target at the 38.2% or 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the recent bullish move. This approach aligns with the current bullish setup and leverages both price action and Fibonacci levels to enhance entry and exit precision. The strategy would need to be tested over a larger dataset to validate its reliability in varying market conditions.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands expanded significantly during the latter half of the 24-hour period, indicating heightened volatility. Price remained within the upper band for much of the last 6 hours, which may suggest strong momentum. However, the recent contraction of the bands at 0.3700–0.3720 hints at a potential reversal or consolidation phase, warranting caution ahead of a breakout attempt.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked above 100,000 during key breakout hours (05:00–07:30 ET), confirming the strength of the bullish move. Turnover also surged during these periods, aligning with price action. A divergence occurred at 05:45–06:30 ET, where price continued to rise but volume began to decline, suggesting a potential exhaustion of the rally. Traders may want to monitor this divergence for a possible reversal signal.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement to the 0.3647–0.3781 swing, key levels at 0.3762 (38.2%), 0.3775 (50%), and 0.3780 (61.8%) appear as critical resistance. Price showed hesitation near 0.3762 but managed to hold above 0.3750, suggesting that the 0.3775–0.3780 level could be the next target. A break above this range could validate the continuation of the uptrend.

The current structure suggests a strong continuation of the bullish trend, supported by key resistance levels holding and strong volume confirmation. Traders may expect a test of 0.3775–0.3780 over the next 24 hours, with a risk of a pullback if volume fails to confirm. Investors should remain cautious of overbought conditions and potential volatility if the 0.3700–0.3710 level is retested, as this could lead to a consolidation phase or a reversal.