Market Overview: KNCUSDT – Kyber Network Crystal v2/Tether 24-Hour Analysis

• KNCUSDT broke above key resistance, reaching 0.3215 but faced selling pressure.• RSI entered overbought territory, suggesting possible near-term profit-taking.• Volume surged during the breakout but waned as price retreated, raising caution.• A bearish divergence in RSI and a pullback to 0.3067 signaled short-term exhaustion.

KNCUSDT opened at 0.3067 (12:00 ET−1) and climbed to 0.3215 before retreating to close at 0.3076 near 12:00 ET. The pair traded between 0.3033 and 0.3215, with total volume hitting 2,688,277.1 and turnover at $799,593.44, showing strong but mixed directional intent.

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour chart showed a sharp bullish breakout in the early hours of 11/08, where KNCUSDT surged from 0.3164 to 0.3215. However, this move failed to hold, and price subsequently entered a bearish phase, with a strong rejection around 0.3175. A key bearish harami pattern formed during the afternoon, suggesting potential exhaustion of bullish momentum. A bearish engulfing pattern was also observed around 0.3103, indicating a shift in sentiment.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, price tested the 20 SMA at 0.3150 before moving above it and then retreating below it later in the day. The 50 SMA held firm around 0.3147, acting as resistance before the bearish pullback. On the daily chart, the 50-day and 100-day SMAs crossed near 0.3135, forming a potential support level, with the 200-day SMA at 0.3120 offering additional near-term floor.

MACD & RSI

MACD showed a bearish crossover in the early afternoon after a brief bullish divergence in the morning. The RSI, which had reached 74 during the breakout, entered overbought territory and then pulled back sharply, ending the day near 50. This suggests potential consolidation ahead. A bearish divergence between price and RSI was also observed during the late morning, supporting a possible near-term reversal.

Bollinger Bands

Price action was tightly contained within the Bollinger Bands for most of the day, with volatility peaking in the early hours of 11/08. A brief expansion was observed as the price approached the upper band, but the subsequent retest of the lower band confirmed weakening momentum. The narrowing of the bands in the late afternoon suggests a potential reversal setup.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the morning breakout, peaking at 178,741.0 for the candle reaching 0.3215, but then declined during the bearish phase. Turnover confirmed the price action, with the largest notional trade occurring during the 0.3164 to 0.3215 rally. The divergence between price and volume in the late morning suggests a loss of conviction among bullish participants.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci levels were key in defining the retracement after the 0.3215 high. A 38.2% retracement level was hit at 0.3184, followed by a 61.8% level at 0.3132, which provided a temporary floor. On the daily chart, the 61.8% retracement of the recent 0.3215–0.3033 move is at 0.3109, which could serve as support or resistance in the next 24 hours.

The near-term outlook for KNCUSDT suggests consolidation around the 0.3109–0.3135 range, with potential for a test of the 0.3033 low. A break of 0.3109 could bring further selling pressure, but bullish bounces from the 0.3088 level may offer reentry opportunities. Traders should remain cautious of volume divergence and overbought/oversold conditions.

Backtest Hypothesis

A backtest strategy was initially proposed to identify KNCUSDT’s Bearish Harami pattern, but the attempt to retrieve the associated data failed due to an unrecognised symbol or data feed unavailability. A viable workaround would be to use a symbol style more widely accepted by data sources, such as “KNC-USDT,” or to run a local detection of the Bearish Harami pattern on the provided OHLC data. This would allow us to assess the historical performance of the pattern and refine our trading hypothesis based on its success rate and risk-reward profile. Implementing such a local analysis could offer valuable insights into the reliability of the pattern for future trades.