Market Overview: KNC/USDT – 24-Hour Analysis for 2025-09-19

• KNC/USDT opened at $0.3866, reaching a high of $0.3881 and a low of $0.3706 before closing at $0.3702 on 24 September 2025.
• Price action showed a broad decline with a bearish bias, with a major pullback from midday highs.
• Volume spiked dramatically in the early morning hours (ET) during the sharp correction, confirming downward momentum.
• RSI and MACD signaled bearish momentum with potential oversold conditions in the final hours.
• Volatility expanded as price moved nearly 4.5% lower, breaching key support levels identified on the 15-minute chart.

Kyber Network Crystal v2/Tether (KNCUSDT) opened at $0.3866 at 12:00 ET–1 and closed at $0.3702 at 12:00 ET. The pair reached a high of $0.3881 and a low of $0.3706. Total volume for the 24-hour period was 758,942.2 KNC, with a notional turnover of $268,924. The price action was marked by a sharp bearish correction, particularly after 3:00 AM ET.

Structure & Formations

Price action over the 24-hour period indicated a strong bearish trend, with a key support level emerging around $0.3700–$0.3710. Multiple long-tailed bearish candles, particularly during the 3:45 AM–4:00 AM ET window, pointed to rejection of higher bids. A notable bearish engulfing pattern formed at $0.3781–$0.3776, confirming the shift in sentiment. A long-legged doji at $0.3738 further reinforced a pause in the decline, though buyers failed to push the price back above $0.3750.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, price broke below both the 20-period and 50-period moving averages, signaling bearish momentum. Daily moving averages (50, 100, and 200) are also currently bearish, with KNC/USDT trading well below all three. This alignment across timeframes reinforces the short-term bearish outlook.

MACD & RSI

The MACD crossed below the signal line during the early morning hours, with the histogram turning negative, confirming the bearish turn. RSI dropped below 30 in the final hours of the period, indicating oversold conditions. While this may suggest a short-term bounce, it is unlikely to reverse the broader bearish trend without a strong bullish divergence.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly during the correction, with price dropping below the lower band at $0.3706. This move suggests a continuation of the bearish trend in the near term. The contraction phase occurred earlier in the morning before the sharp drop, indicating a period of consolidation before a directional move was initiated.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during the 3:45 AM–4:00 AM ET window with a turnover spike of nearly $26,000, coinciding with a sharp drop in price. This confirms the bearish move. However, volume in the last few hours has been relatively low, suggesting exhaustion in the selling pressure. A divergence between price and volume could signal a potential near-term rebound, but caution is advised.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the key swing high at $0.3881 and the swing low at $0.3706, 38.2% and 61.8% retracement levels are located at $0.3818 and $0.3754, respectively. Price found some rejection at the 61.8% level, which could serve as a potential short-term support zone. However, the failure to hold above this level raises concerns about further downside.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the bearish structure and divergence in RSI and MACD, a potential backtesting strategy could be to short the pair on a close below $0.3754 with a stop loss placed above $0.3780, targeting the next key support at $0.3700. This approach leverages the recent Fibonacci levels and confirmed bearish momentum indicators. The 15-minute chart shows a clear breakdown pattern, making this a viable short-term bearish trade. However, the low volume in the last few hours suggests a possible near-term consolidation phase, which could test the strategy’s parameters before further downward movement.