Market Overview for Kite/USDC (KITEUSDC) – 2025-11-06

Summary
• Kite/USDC opened at 0.0896 and fell to a 24-hour low of 0.0732 before closing at 0.0732 near the session’s bottom.
• A sharp bearish breakdown occurred in the early ET hours, marked by a massive volume spike and long lower wicks.
• Momentum indicators suggest oversold conditions, but a rebound is yet to be confirmed with follow-through volume.

Market Overview for Kite/USDC (KITEUSDC)

Kite/USDC (KITEUSDC) opened at 0.0896 on 2025-11-05 12:00 ET and reached a high of 0.0933 before experiencing a rapid decline that carried through the first half of the 24-hour window. The pair closed at 0.0732 at 12:00 ET on 2025-11-06, after hitting a session low of 0.0732. The total traded volume was approximately 10,724,713.5 units, with a turnover of roughly 946,544 USDC. The price action suggests strong bearish momentum amid high-volume selling pressure.

Structure & Formations

The price structure revealed a sharp bearish breakdown from key resistance levels, particularly during the 19:15–19:30 ET window, where the price collapsed from 0.0896 to 0.0814 in a single 15-minute interval. A long bearish engulfing pattern formed on the 19:15 ET candle, signaling a shift in sentiment. A potential support cluster was tested between 0.0810 and 0.0830, but it failed to hold. Later, a potential base formed near 0.0743–0.0758, which may provide a floor for the next 24 hours.

Moving Averages and Volatility

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart were both in a steep downward slope, reinforcing the bearish bias. Volatility expanded significantly following the breakdown, with the 20-period Bollinger Band widening from around 0.0930 to 0.0730. Price closed near the lower band, suggesting that the market may be entering an oversold condition.

Momentum and Divergences

Momentum, as captured by MACD and RSI, remained bearish but began showing signs of exhaustion after the 05:00 ET time frame. The RSI hit a low of 23–27, suggesting oversold conditions, but without a clear reversal candle or follow-through buying, a bounce is not yet confirmed. A divergence between lower prices and slightly improving RSI could signal a near-term bottom, but confirmation is pending.

Volume and Turnover Analysis

Volume spiked dramatically during the breakdown phase, particularly in the 19:15–20:00 ET window, with several 15-minute candles registering more than 500,000 units traded. Notional turnover also spiked during these periods, confirming the strength of the bearish move. However, after the price dipped below 0.0760, volume declined, indicating that sellers may be running out of steam. A key question is whether buying activity will increase to support the 0.0743–0.0758 level.

Fibonacci Retracements and Key Levels

On the 15-minute chart, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level from the high of 0.0933 to the low of 0.0732 came in around 0.0806–0.0809, which held briefly before the price broke through. On the daily chart, the 38.2% retracement level at around 0.0850 may become a psychological target for short-term bounces. A test of the 61.8% retracement at 0.0760–0.0775 could confirm a temporary bottom.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy outlined earlier could benefit from the current price and volume dynamics observed in Kite/USDC. A potential approach would involve identifying key Fibonacci retracement levels (particularly the 61.8% and 38.2%) and using RSI to detect potential overbought or oversold conditions. A long entry could be triggered on a bullish reversal candle at 0.0743–0.0758 with a stop loss below the 0.0730 level. A short entry might be considered on a breakdown below the 0.0730–0.0740 support with a target near the 61.8% retracement at 0.0806–0.0809. Volume must confirm these moves for the strategy to gain credibility.