Market Overview for Kamino Finance/Tether (KMNOUSDT)

• Price dropped from 0.06481 to 0.05926 over 24 hours, ending near a fresh low.
• High volatility observed in the early morning with a sharp selloff.
• RSI and MACD likely signaled oversold conditions after the drop.
• Volume picked up during the selloff but has since cooled off.
• No immediate bullish reversal patterns formed in the last 24 hours.

Kamino Finance/Tether (KMNOUSDT) opened at 0.06246 at 12:00 ET-1 and fell to a 24-hour low of 0.05926 before closing at 0.05926 at 12:00 ET. The pair traded between 0.06481 and 0.05891, with a total volume of 49.7 million KMNO and a notional turnover of approximately $3.15 million. The price action has shown a clear bearish bias, with sellers dominating the market in the last 24 hours.

On the 15-minute chart, the price has been below both the 20-period and 50-period moving averages, indicating a short-term bearish trend. Resistance appears to be forming around the 0.0600–0.0605 range, where the price stalled multiple times during the session. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA has crossed below the 100-period MA, reinforcing a longer-term downtrend. The 200-period MA remains a distant support level.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has been in oversold territory for much of the session, with values dipping below 30 on several occasions, particularly in the early morning hours. This suggests that the price may be overextended to the downside, although without a clear reversal pattern or volume confirmation, a bounce remains uncertain. The MACD histogram has remained negative, indicating that bearish momentum is still intact. The MACD line crossed below the signal line early in the session, reinforcing the bearish sentiment.

Bollinger Bands have widened significantly in the early hours of the session, indicating a period of heightened volatility. Price has stayed near the lower band for much of the day, suggesting continued pressure from the short side. A retest of the lower band could either confirm a new support level or trigger a rebound if buyers step in. On the 15-minute chart, the upper band now sits just above the 0.0605 level, which may act as a psychological resistance in the near term.

Fibonacci retracement levels drawn from the recent 15-minute swing from 0.06481 to 0.05926 show that the price has found support near the 61.8% level (~0.0602–0.0603), but this support has been tested multiple times without a strong rebound. On the daily chart, key retracement levels from the longer-term move could also be relevant if the market shows signs of consolidation. The 38.2% level (~0.0613) may serve as a short-term resistance in the next 24–48 hours.

Backtest Hypothesis

The RSI(14) strategy described aims to capture oversold bounce opportunities and exit on a momentum shift. Given the recent price action in KMNOUSDT, the pair has spent a significant portion of the 24-hour period below the 30 RSI threshold, which would have triggered multiple entries if the backtest had access to the data. However, the absence of a strong rebound and confirmation above the 50 RSI level suggests that any such entries would have faced a high risk of holding a declining position. If the pair continues to trade below 50 RSI in the coming days without a reversal in volume or price, the strategy may face further challenges in generating positive returns. Given these dynamics, it is advisable to ensure the correct symbol and data parameters are used before proceeding with the full backtest.