Market Overview: Kamino Finance/Tether (KMNOUSDT) 24-Hour Analysis

• Price declined from 0.0646 to 0.0629 with bearish momentum and oversold RSI.
• Volatility expanded midday, with price bouncing near 0.0628–0.0630 support.
• Volume spiked during the 19:00–21:00 ET timeframe, suggesting increased selling pressure.
• 15-minute chart shows bearish engulfing and hanging man patterns near key resistance.
• Bollinger Bands indicate a reversion to the mean with closing near the lower band.

Kamino Finance/Tether (KMNOUSDT) opened at 0.06431 on 2025-09-25 at 12:00 ET and closed at 0.06295 on 2025-09-26 at 12:00 ET. The 24-hour high was 0.0646, and the low was 0.06147. Total volume amounted to ~12,336,000, with notional turnover approximately $785,000. The pair exhibited a bearish bias with expanding volatility and strong selling pressure late morning to mid-afternoon.

Structure & Formations

The price action formed a bearish continuation pattern, with several bearish engulfing and hanging man formations appearing near the 0.0632–0.0636 resistance cluster. A key support level appears to be forming around 0.0628–0.0630, which saw repeated bounces and consolidation. On the 15-minute chart, a significant bearish breakout occurred after 17:30 ET, confirming the downward trend. A 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at 0.0632 and a 61.8% retracement at 0.0626 were both tested, with the latter providing partial support before another decline.

Moving Averages and Indicators

On the 15-minute chart, the 20SMA and 50SMA have both trended lower, with the 20SMA crossing below the 50SMA to form a bearish signal. Daily moving averages (50D, 100D, 200D) also show a downward bias, with the 50D and 100D recently aligning to reinforce the bearish trend. The MACD has remained negative for most of the period, confirming bearish momentum. The RSI has fallen into oversold territory (below 30), suggesting a potential short-term rebound, although the bearish trend is likely to continue in the near term.

Bollinger Bands and Volatility

Volatility expanded notably during the 17:30–21:00 ET period, with the Bollinger Bands widening. Price closed near the lower band at 0.06295, indicating potential for a mean reversion to the middle band (0.0634). However, given the bearish pressure observed in the late afternoon, a continuation below the lower band is still likely unless a strong bullish catalyst emerges. The width of the bands also suggests increased market uncertainty and potential for larger swings.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked significantly during the 19:00–21:00 ET window, coinciding with the sharp decline from 0.0637 to 0.0622. This suggests strong conviction from sellers. Notional turnover also surged during this period, aligning with price action and confirming the strength of the bearish move. However, during the early morning hours (00:00–02:00 ET), volume decreased despite continued price declines, indicating weaker conviction and possible short-covering or accumulation.

Fibonacci Retracements and Key Levels

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the major 15-minute swing (0.0646 to 0.06147), the 38.2% retracement level is at 0.0632 and the 61.8% is at 0.0626. The 61.8% level held briefly before a further decline, suggesting it may act as a critical support zone. On the daily chart, the 0.0630–0.0632 range appears to be a key area of interest, with the possibility of a countertrend bounce if buyers step in. A close below 0.0626 could trigger a deeper correction toward 0.0620.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy described involves entering short positions at key Fibonacci levels (61.8% retracement) on the 15-minute chart when RSI crosses below 30 and MACD is bearish. Stop-loss is placed at 0.0635, and a take-profit target is set at 0.0624, based on the recent volatility and key support levels. Given the current conditions—oversold RSI, bearish MACD, and a price near the 61.8% retracement—this strategy appears to align well with the observed price action. The bearish signal is reinforced by the recent engulfing and hanging man patterns, suggesting a potentially favorable environment for a short trade. However, caution is advised due to the volatility and the risk of a counter-attack rally if bullish momentum intensifies.