Market Overview: Kamino Finance/Tether (KMNOUSDT) – 24-Hour Analysis (2025-09-19)

• Price surged to $0.10399 before correcting, closing near $0.0935 at 12:00 ET.
• Strong bullish momentum in early afternoon ET, followed by fading volume and sideways consolidation.
• Key support at $0.0933–0.0935 holds, while resistance forms at $0.0956–0.0963.
• RSI overbought during rally, now neutralizing; MACD histogram shrinks, suggesting weakening bullish momentum.
• Volatility expands during rally but contracts in late hours, suggesting traders are consolidating positions.

The Kamino Finance/Tether pair, KMNOUSDT, opened at $0.0884 on 2025-09-18 at 12:00 ET and reached a high of $0.10399 later in the session. It closed at $0.0935 on 2025-09-19 at 12:00 ET after a significant intraday correction. Total traded volume was 159,842,446.0 Tether, with a notional turnover reflecting the pair’s increased exposure during the rally.

The price action features a strong upward thrust from $0.089–$0.10399, driven by a bullish engulfing pattern and a strong break of prior resistance at $0.0956. However, the rally lacks confirmation in the form of a sustained move above this level, and volume tapers off in the final hours of the 24-hour period. This may suggest traders are consolidating positions or preparing for a potential reversal.

The 15-minute chart shows the 20-period and 50-period moving averages in bullish alignment during the rally, but the 50-period line has started to flatten as price nears $0.0935, signaling potential exhaustion. The RSI, which spiked into overbought territory during the rally, has since pulled back to neutral ground. MACD remains in positive territory but with a shrinking histogram, indicating fading momentum.

Bollinger Bands reflect a period of volatility expansion during the rally, with price reaching the upper band at $0.10399, followed by a contraction phase. Price is currently hovering just above the middle band at $0.0935, near a potential 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the $0.089–$0.10399 swing. This level appears to be holding as support, with volume picking up slightly in the $0.0933–0.0935 range.

The price is currently between 38.2% and 61.8% Fibonacci levels of the recent swing, suggesting a potential bounce from $0.0933–0.0935 or a resumption of bearish momentum if support breaks. Volume and turnover have diverged from price in the past two hours, with a sharp drop in volume despite a slight price increase. This could indicate a lack of conviction in the upward move.

Backtest Hypothesis
A potential backtesting strategy could involve buying KMNOUSDT on a confirmed break of the $0.0956 resistance level, with a stop loss placed below $0.0933. The strategy could target a 61.8% Fibonacci level as an initial profit target or a retest of the upper Bollinger Band during a volatility expansion phase. This approach aligns with the strong bullish structure seen in the 15-minute chart, particularly the bullish engulfing pattern and the 20/50 MA alignment during the rally. However, traders should remain cautious given the declining volume and the RSI’s retreat from overbought levels, which may signal a potential pullback.