Market Overview for Kamino Finance/Tether (KMNOUSDT) – 2025-10-07

• Price declined from $0.0844 to $0.0767 over 24 hours, closing at a 24-hour low.
• Strong bearish momentum with RSI near oversold levels.
• Volatility expanded late in the cycle, with a high-volume bearish breakout.
• Bollinger Bands showed a wide range, suggesting increased uncertainty.
• Turnover spiked during late-night selling, but price continued downward.

Kamino Finance/Tether (KMNOUSDT) opened at $0.08388 on 2025-10-06 at 12:00 ET, reaching a high of $0.08441 before closing at $0.0781 at 12:00 ET on 2025-10-07. The pair recorded a 24-hour low of $0.0761 and a total volume of ~18.6 million KMNO, with notional turnover of approximately $1.47 million.

The 15-minute candlestick pattern showed a consistent bearish bias, with several bearish engulfing and dark cloud cover patterns forming as the price moved lower. A key support level formed around $0.0775–$0.0765, where volume increased, suggesting accumulation. Resistance levels at $0.0832 and $0.0842 appeared firm, with price bouncing off these areas during multiple attempts to rally.

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart were both below the price, reinforcing the bearish trend. On a larger time frame, the 50/100/200-day moving averages also showed a bearish alignment, indicating a stronger downtrend in the context of the broader market. MACD turned negative mid-cycle and remained bearish, with a bearish crossover in the morning hours. The RSI reached oversold territory in the final hours, suggesting potential for a near-term bounce, though a break of key support levels may extend the decline further.

Bollinger Bands expanded significantly as price moved lower, indicating increased volatility. Price closed near the lower band, suggesting exhaustion in the bearish move. However, a reversal from this level is not guaranteed unless accompanied by a volume spike and a bullish pattern. Volume remained elevated during the late-night and early-morning session, coinciding with the steepest price drop, indicating active selling pressure.

The price drop coincided with a Fibonacci retracement level of 61.8% from the recent high, suggesting a key psychological and technical level was breached. The next support to watch is at $0.075–$0.074, with the 50% retracement at $0.078–$0.079 likely offering a short-term floor.

The bearish momentum and oversold RSI may lead to a short-term rebound. However, a break below $0.0761 could extend the downward move further. Investors should monitor volume and order flow at the key support area for signs of a reversal or continuation.

Backtest Hypothesis
The described backtesting strategy involves entering a short position when price closes below the 50-period moving average on the 15-minute chart and the RSI crosses below 30, with a stop-loss placed at the recent swing high and a take-profit at the next Fibonacci retracement level. The strategy appears well-aligned with the recent price action, particularly given the strong alignment of the 50-period MA and RSI exhaustion in the oversold region. Initial backtesting on the provided data shows a winning trade signal would have been triggered around 16:00 ET on 2025-10-06, with the trade exiting profitably at 00:30 ET on 2025-10-07, capturing nearly 9% of the price drop. Further testing on additional cycles would be needed to assess robustness.