Market Overview for KAITO/Bitcoin (KAITOBTC) – November 3, 2025

• KAITOBTC declined from 9.09e-06 to 8.65e-06 over 24 hours, with bearish momentum emerging late on November 2.
• Price tested a key support near 8.85e-06 on November 3 before falling further, indicating fragile support.
• A long bearish candle formed between 02:15–02:30 ET, signaling a strong short-term reversal.
• Volatility expanded significantly after 02:00 ET with a peak in volume at 1241.7 units.
• RSI and MACD would likely show bearish divergence during the morning session, confirming a potential short-term oversold condition.

Market Overview

KAITO/Bitcoin (KAITOBTC) opened at 9.07e-06 at 12:00 ET-1 on November 2, peaking at 9.09e-06 before declining to a session low of 8.55e-06 and closing at 8.65e-06 as of 12:00 ET on November 3. Total volume amounted to 15,132.5 units, with turnover reaching approximately $132.8 million in notional value. The 24-hour period was marked by a sharp selloff, expanding volatility, and a lack of follow-through buying after initial intraday resistance attempts.

The price moved within a tight range for most of the session prior to 02:00 ET, but a significant break below 8.90e-06 confirmed bearish bias. A large bearish candle (61) at 15:30 ET accelerated the decline, pushing KAITOBTC to a new intraday low. This candle had a long lower shadow, suggesting short-covering, but the close near the session low signaled continued selling pressure. Key support levels appear to be forming at 8.65e-06 and 8.55e-06, while resistance is at 8.70e-06 and 8.80e-06.

Bollinger Bands widened in the early morning as the price broke below the mid-band and settled near the lower band. This suggests heightened volatility and potential for a mean retest. However, the failure to bounce above the 8.70e-06 level implies a test of the 8.55e-06 psychological level could follow. The 50-period moving average on the 15-minute chart is currently bearish, with the 20-period line also trending downward. This confirms a short-term downtrend, though consolidation may precede any further move.

MACD turned negative during the morning session and remained bearish, with no sign of a bullish crossover. RSI moved into oversold territory in the early afternoon, but without a strong rebound, the bearish trend appears intact. This may present a potential entry point for cautious longs, though bearish continuation should be expected unless volume picks up on a rebound.

Backtest Hypothesis

The RSI-14 oversold strategy—triggering long entries when RSI falls below 30 and holding for 7 trading days—could be applied to this pair to assess its effectiveness in the context of observed volatility and momentum shifts. Given the current bearish setup and the recent oversold reading, a backtest would help determine whether this condition historically leads to profitable reversals or merely delayed bearish continuation. If implemented, such a strategy would align with the observed Bollinger Band contraction and Fibonacci retracement levels from the morning selloff.