Market Overview for Jupiter/Tether (JUPUSDT) on 2025-10-13

• JUPUSDT traded in a 24-hour range of $0.3588–$0.3855, closing at $0.3821 with a 3.4% increase from the prior day.
• Momentum shifted midday with a sharp rise above key resistance at $0.380, supported by increased volume and bullish engulfing patterns.
• Volatility expanded after 16:00 ET, with a Bollinger Band breakout and MACD crossover signaling potential continuation.
• Overbought conditions emerged near $0.384, as RSI hit 70, while volume declined slightly in the final hours, hinting at consolidation.
• A Fibonacci 61.8% retracement at $0.3765 acted as temporary support, but the move higher appears to be gaining traction.

Price Behavior and Key Levels

Jupiter/Tether (JUPUSDT) opened at $0.3603 on 2025-10-12 at 12:00 ET and closed at $0.3821 on 2025-10-13 at 12:00 ET, with an intraday high of $0.3855 and low of $0.3588. Total trading volume over the 24-hour period was 13.44 million JUP, while notional turnover amounted to $4.66 million, indicating a surge in interest and liquidity. The price action shows a strong upward bias, with key resistance at $0.380 and $0.384 being clearly breached.

The bullish engulfing patterns seen at $0.365–$0.370 and $0.374–$0.378 suggest strong buying pressure after initial consolidation. A doji near $0.372 and $0.3785 also indicates indecision, but the overall trend appears to favor further upside, especially with support levels at $0.376 and $0.370 showing resilience.

Moving Averages and Trend Direction

The 15-minute chart shows the 20-period SMA currently above the 50-period SMA, confirming a short-term bullish trend. The 50-period SMA has been steadily rising, suggesting the uptrend may continue in the near term. On the daily timeframe, the 50-day and 100-day SMAs are both trending upward, with the 200-day SMA acting as a strong support line around $0.366–$0.370. Price has consistently traded above all three, reinforcing the idea that a multi-day bullish bias remains intact.

MACD and RSI Momentum Indicators

MACD has moved into positive territory, with the MACD line crossing above the signal line around 16:00 ET. This golden cross has been confirmed by rising histogram bars, indicating growing momentum. The RSI has also crossed into overbought territory (above 70) near the $0.384 level, which may act as a short-term ceiling. However, strong volume has confirmed the move, suggesting momentum is likely to carry into the next 24 hours.

Bollinger Bands and Volatility

Bollinger Bands have widened significantly since midday, reflecting increasing volatility. The price has moved above the upper band multiple times, with the most recent breakout at $0.3851 confirming a strong bullish phase. The lower band at ~$0.368 has held well as support, and the price has stayed within the bands for most of the session, indicating a controlled and directional move rather than a chaotic breakout.

Volume and Turnover Correlation

The volume profile shows a clear increase in activity after 15:00 ET, aligning with the price breakout above $0.380. Notional turnover spiked during this period, confirming the strength of the move. A divergence between volume and price occurred briefly between 04:00 and 05:00 ET, but it was short-lived and did not derail the overall trend. The most recent volume spike at $0.382–$0.385 has confirmed a solid accumulation phase, favoring further gains.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the $0.3588–$0.3855 swing, key levels include $0.3765 (61.8%) and $0.3723 (38.2%), both of which were tested during the session. The $0.3765 level held briefly but was later retraced and broken, suggesting stronger bullish conviction than previously anticipated. The $0.3723 level acted as a minor support point and is likely to now become resistance if the trend reverses.

Backtest Hypothesis

The MACD golden cross is a core signal in many backtesting strategies, particularly for timeframes such as 15-minute candlestick data. This strategy relies on identifying when the MACD line crosses above the signal line, which historically has led to favorable outcomes in trending markets like the one seen in JUPUSDT. For a more accurate backtest, precise price data for JUP/USDT is required from a reliable source. If data is available for JUPUSDT on Binance or another exchange, it can be used to calculate the MACD values and determine the exact golden-cross dates. Once these are identified, an event backtest can be run from 2022-01-01 to 2025-10-13, measuring performance metrics such as win rate, average return, drawdown, and Sharpe ratio. This would allow for a quantitative assessment of the strategy’s viability and provide insights into its historical effectiveness in JUPUSDT’s price behavior.