Market Overview for Jupiter/Tether (JUPUSDT) – 2025-09-17

• Price declined from 0.5217 to 0.5070, indicating bearish momentum with a significant drop in the overnight session.
• RSI and MACD signaled oversold conditions late in the session, suggesting possible near-term consolidation.
• Volatility expanded during the early hours, with a sharp volume spike and price break below key support.
• Bollinger Bands show contraction in the morning and expansion during the sell-off, reflecting increased uncertainty.
• Fibonacci retracements highlight key levels at 0.5095 and 0.5150, which may trigger near-term reactions.

Price Movement and Open-High-Low-Close Summary

Jupiter/Tether (JUPUSDT) opened at 0.5217 at 12:00 ET-1, reached a high of 0.5243, and a low of 0.5028 before closing at 0.5070 at 12:00 ET. The 24-hour volume totaled 9,698,724.8, with a notional turnover of $4,972,281.95 (based on average price). The session saw a sharp breakdown in the overnight hours, with bearish momentum accelerating as price broke below key psychological levels.

Structure & Key Levels

Price tested and fell below multiple critical levels during the 24-hour window, with the most notable breakdown occurring between 02:30 and 04:00 ET, where JUPUSDT dipped to 0.5028, a level that had previously acted as a minor support. A doji formed at 03:45 ET, indicating indecision, followed by a strong bearish engulfing pattern as price dropped further. The 0.5070–0.5080 range appears to be a short-term floor for now, and a close above 0.5100 could signal a potential reversal. The 0.5125–0.5150 zone represents a critical resistance cluster.

Moving Averages, MACD & RSI

The 20 and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart both crossed bearishly in the early hours, confirming the downward trend. MACD turned negative after a brief positive divergence at the start of the session, indicating momentum has shifted to the downside. RSI bottomed out at 27 by 04:45 ET before recovering slightly, suggesting the price is in a temporary oversold condition. However, the recovery may be short-lived without a clear reversal signal.

Bollinger Bands and Volatility

Volatility expanded significantly during the 02:30–04:30 ET timeframe, with price breaking out below the lower Bollinger Band. The contraction earlier in the day suggested reduced uncertainty, but the expansion reflected heightened fear and selling pressure. Price remains near the lower band, indicating a high probability of further consolidation or a bounce from this level. A sustained move above the middle band could indicate a shift in sentiment.

Volume and Turnover Analysis

Volume spiked during the overnight session, with the most significant spike occurring at 02:30 ET (volume: 333,197) and 04:00 ET (volume: 100,006). The large volume during the downward moves suggests conviction in the bearish trend. Turnover also spiked during these hours, aligning with price action and confirming the strength of the selloff. However, a divergence appears in the last few hours where volume has decreased despite the price near a multi-day low, which could hint at exhaustion and a potential short-term bounce.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement to the recent swing high (0.5243) and the low (0.5028), key levels of interest include 38.2% at 0.5148 and 61.8% at 0.5089. Price currently hovers near the 61.8% retracement level, which has historically acted as a temporary support. A close below this level could trigger a test of the 0.5050 level. On the daily chart, retracement levels from the previous month’s highs (not visible in this dataset) could also serve as future reference points for potential reversals or continuation.

Backtest Hypothesis

A backtesting strategy that could be applied to this market setup involves a short-biased approach entering on a breakdown below the 0.5080 support, with a stop placed just above the 0.5115–0.5120 resistance level. A target can be set at the 0.5045–0.5050 level, based on Fibonacci and prior support. If RSI moves above 40 and MACD turns positive while price stays above 0.5100, the trade would be exited with a loss or re-entered for a long bias. This approach aligns with the technical indicators used in this analysis and could be backtested on historical data for further refinement.