Market Overview for Jupiter/Tether (JUPUSDT): 2025-09-15

• Jupiter/Tether (JUPUSDT) declined by 8.3% in 24 hours, breaking key support levels.
• Volatility expanded sharply overnight, with a peak-to-trough move of ~4.5% during early trading.
• A bearish engulfing pattern formed near the $0.5459 high, signaling short-term momentum reversal.
• Notional turnover spiked above $500M as the pair broke below 0.53, confirming bearish sentiment.
• RSI and MACD both show oversold conditions, suggesting potential for a short-term bounce.

Jupiter/Tether (JUPUSDT) opened at $0.532 on 2025-09-14 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of $0.5495 before retreating sharply, and closed at $0.5104 at 12:00 ET the next day. Total 24-hour volume amounted to 12,671,707 JUP and notional turnover of $6,467,455 (based on average price). The pair has been in a clear bearish trend, with a bearish engulfing pattern and a breakdown below key support levels.

Structure & Formations

The price action revealed a distinct bearish bias, particularly after the bearish engulfing pattern formed around $0.5459, confirming the loss of bullish momentum. A key support level was breached at $0.5301, followed by a further drop to $0.51. The pair may now face a critical short-term support near $0.505–$0.507, where a bounce or reversal could occur. The breakdown suggests a potential move toward the 0.50–0.49 range if the bearish trend continues.

Moving Averages

Short-term (15-min) moving averages (20/50) crossed below price action, indicating bearish momentum. Daily MAs (50/100/200) also showed a descending bias, with the 200-day MA acting as a distant resistance level near $0.56. Price is currently below all key moving averages, reinforcing the bearish outlook.

MACD & RSI

MACD has been in negative territory, with the line crossing below the signal line and diverging from price action. RSI dropped into oversold territory below 30, suggesting a potential rebound in the near term. However, the depth of the RSI decline and the prolonged bearish momentum suggest that this oversold bounce may be limited in duration.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly as price moved from the upper band near $0.5495 to the lower band near $0.5085. Price is currently near the lower Bollinger band, which can act as a temporary support. A move back toward the 20-period midline at ~$0.517 would indicate a possible reversal, but the bearish bias remains strong unless a bullish breakout occurs.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during the breakdown below $0.5301, confirming the bearish move. Notional turnover exceeded $500M during the sharp decline, highlighting strong bearish participation. Price and turnover appear to be aligned, with no signs of divergence, supporting the validity of the current bearish trend.

Fibonacci Retracements

On a 15-minute chart, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level is near $0.5105–$0.5110, where we've seen a slight consolidation. A break below this level could target the 78.6% level near $0.504. On the daily chart, the 61.8% retracement of the recent swing high to low is near $0.517–0.518, which could be a retest level.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy described involves entering short positions on a breakdown below the 20-period moving average, with a stop-loss above the most recent bullish candle's high and a take-profit at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. Given the current alignment of moving averages, MACD, and Fibonacci levels, this strategy aligns well with the observed bearish structure. A breakdown below $0.5104 could trigger a target near $0.504, with risk management favoring a stop above $0.5160 to protect against a potential short-term rebound.