Market Overview for Jupiter/Tether (JUPUSDT) – 2025-09-13

• JUPUSDT declined sharply to 0.5435 amid heavy volume, signaling increased bearish momentum.
• The RSI suggests oversold conditions, while Bollinger Bands show a recent contraction, hinting at potential breakout.
• Key Fibonacci levels at 0.5563 and 0.5505 mark probable areas of near-term retesting.
• Volume spiked during the downward move, confirming bearish sentiment, though divergence in price and turnover suggests caution.
• 15-minute chart patterns like the bearish engulfing and inverted harami reinforce the continuation of the downtrend.

Jupiter/Tether (JUPUSDT) opened at 0.5561 on 2025-09-12 at 16:00 ET and closed at 0.5475 on 2025-09-13 at 16:00 ET. The 24-hour range reached a high of 0.5642 and a low of 0.5435. Total trading volume was 9,320,554.5, with a total turnover of 5,091,867.3 (in Tether terms). The pair experienced a bearish reversal, with price falling below key moving averages and forming bearish candlestick patterns.

Structure & Formations

On the 15-minute chart, JUPUSDT broke below a key support level at 0.5550 and formed a series of bearish patterns, including an inverted harami and bearish engulfing. The 20-period and 50-period moving averages (20SMA and 50SMA) are both below current price levels, reinforcing the bearish bias. A key resistance appears at 0.5585, with a support cluster forming around 0.5505 and 0.5485. The bearish breakdown has invalidated several bullish continuation patterns that were present earlier in the session.

Moving Averages

The 20SMA and 50SMA on the 15-minute chart show a clear bearish crossover, with the 50SMA crossing below the 20SMA. On the daily chart, the 50DMA and 100DMA are both below the 200DMA, indicating a longer-term bearish trend. Price closed below the 50DMA, suggesting further downward momentum is likely unless the market shows a strong reversal above 0.5615.

MACD & RSI

The 15-minute MACD is negative and trending downward, with the signal line crossing below the MACD line. The RSI has entered oversold territory, at around 28, indicating a potential for a short-term bounce. However, the bearish momentum remains strong, with no clear signs of a reversal on the MACD. A close above 0.5565 would be necessary for RSI to move into neutral territory.

Bollinger Bands

Price has broken out of a tight Bollinger Band contraction observed in the morning, now trading near the lower band at 0.5475. The standard deviation is high, reflecting increased volatility. A continuation of the bearish move could push JUPUSDT toward the lower boundary of the band at 0.5435, with a possible bounce expected if the band’s width contracts again.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during the sharp decline, with the most significant spike recorded at 13:00 ET, when JUPUSDT fell to 0.5435. Turnover also increased, indicating increased selling pressure. However, the volume and price appear to diverge slightly in the final hours of the session—while volume remained high, the price movement was more muted, which may signal a lack of conviction in the current bearish move.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the recent 15-minute move, the 61.8% level at 0.5505 and the 38.2% level at 0.5563 are critical. Price has tested the 61.8% level but failed to hold above it. On the daily chart, the 61.8% retracement from the high of 0.5642 to the low of 0.5435 is at 0.5522, a level where the market may find temporary support before resuming the downtrend.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy for JUPUSDT involves entering a short position on a bearish engulfing pattern confirmed by a close below the 50SMA, with a stop-loss placed above the recent high of 0.5605 and a target aligned with the 61.8% Fibonacci level at 0.5505. The MACD and RSI would be used to assess momentum and signal the strength of the move. This approach would align with today's bearish confirmation, particularly around the 13:00 ET candle and subsequent volume spikes.