Market Overview for IQ/Tether (IQUSDT) – October 3, 2025

• IQUSDT traded in a tight range before a sharp midday spike pushed the pair 6.5% higher.
• Price found resistance near $0.003345 and pulled back, forming a potential bearish divergence.
• Volume spiked at 00:15 ET with a 93.2M USDT turnover, hinting at a short-term reversal catalyst.
• RSI reached overbought levels, suggesting a correction may be due.
• Volatility surged during the midday spike, with Bollinger Bands widening sharply before narrowing again.

15-Minute Chart Summary

IQUSDT opened at $0.003265 on October 2, 2025, 12:00 ET, and closed at $0.003278 at 12:00 ET on October 3. The pair reached a high of $0.003353 and a low of $0.00326. Total volume traded in the 24-hour period was 189.7 million, with notional turnover of $638,746. Price action showed a strong breakout above key resistance during the early morning hours, followed by a consolidation phase with bearish clues forming on the 15-minute chart.

Structure & Formations

Key support levels were identified near $0.003276 and $0.003265, where the price found temporary refuge after a midday decline. Resistance levels formed around $0.003345 and $0.00333, where bearish rejection occurred after a strong upward push. Several bearish candlestick formations were observed, including a morning star at $0.003341 and a potential dark cloud cover at $0.003335, suggesting potential exhaustion in the bullish momentum.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period MA acted as a dynamic support during the consolidation phase, while the 50-period MA showed a slight bearish crossover during the afternoon. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA crossed above the 200-period MA, confirming a longer-term bullish bias, though this was overshadowed by the recent overbought condition.

MACD & RSI

The MACD turned bearish during the afternoon, with a histogram that started to shrink as bearish momentum waned. RSI reached overbought territory near 75 before pulling back, indicating potential exhaustion in the recent rally. A bearish divergence between price and RSI during the consolidation phase could signal an impending pullback.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility spiked during the morning hours, causing Bollinger Bands to widen significantly as the pair broke out of a tight range. Price closed near the upper band during the morning, but by mid-afternoon, it had pulled back toward the midline, suggesting a temporary consolidation phase. The narrowing of bands in the later part of the day hinted at a potential breakout or breakdown scenario in the near term.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged at 00:15 ET as the pair approached $0.003345, reaching 93.2 million, the highest in the 24-hour window. However, the subsequent pullback occurred on relatively low volume, suggesting a lack of follow-through on the bullish move. Notional turnover reached a peak of $638,746, with the highest turnover occurring during the midday break. A divergence between price and turnover was observed in the latter half of the day, indicating potential bearish implications.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci levels were applied to the recent 15-minute swing high at $0.003353 and the low at $0.00326. The 61.8% level at $0.003312 acted as a key support area where the price found refuge during the afternoon. On the daily chart, the 38.2% retracement at $0.003306 marked the first level of resistance during the consolidation phase.

Backtest Hypothesis

The recent overbought RSI readings and bearish candlestick patterns suggest a potential short-term pullback. A backtest strategy could target a short entry near $0.003312 on a break below this Fibonacci level, with a stop loss above $0.00333. This aligns with the observed bearish divergence and the failure to hold key resistance levels. If successful, the strategy could capture a retracement of 1–1.5%, leveraging both momentum and volume signals to improve signal-to-noise ratio.