Market Overview for IQ/Tether (IQUSDT)

• Price declined to 0.00306 on 24-hour low, with bearish momentum and volume increasing in the final 6 hours.
• RSI signaled oversold conditions near 30, but price failed to find meaningful support.
• Bollinger Bands widened as volatility increased, with price closing near the lower band.
• Notable 15-minute bearish engulfing pattern formed after 0.003107 on 2025-09-25 19:30 ET.
• Volume surged to 7.4 million on 2025-09-26 08:30 ET, aligning with a 0.003086 price rejection.

At 12:00 ET on 2025-09-26, IQ/Tether (IQUSDT) opened at 0.003231, reached a high of 0.003232, and closed at 0.003091, with a 24-hour low of 0.00306. Total volume traded was 89,937,945.9, and notional turnover was approximately $278,561 (based on average price). Price action has shown bearish continuation with key support levels being tested.

Structure & Formations

Price action over the last 24 hours revealed a bearish bias, with a notable bearish engulfing pattern forming at 19:30 ET on 2025-09-25 after a failed attempt to retest 0.003107. The 0.00306–0.003074 range appears as a potential short-term support zone, with prior resistance now acting as a floor. A bullish reversal could materialize if price stabilizes above 0.003074 with increased volume, but for now, the structure favors further downward movement.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period MA and 50-period MA both trended lower, confirming the bearish bias. For the daily chart, the 50-period MA is above the 100-period and 200-period MAs, indicating a continuation of a longer-term bearish trend. The moving average convergence suggests that traders are responding to the falling price and reinforcing bearish sentiment.

MACD & RSI

MACD remained in negative territory with a bearish crossover, reinforcing the continuation of the downtrend. RSI dipped to 30 in the final hours, signaling oversold conditions; however, the lack of a strong rebound suggests weak conviction in a reversal. Traders should monitor for a divergence between RSI and price action, which could signal a potential reversal in the coming hours.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands showed increased volatility with a widening range, reflecting growing uncertainty in the market. At the 24-hour close, price was near the lower band, which is typically a sign of oversold conditions. A bounce off the lower band would require confirmation from volume and momentum indicators.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked to 7.4 million on 2025-09-26 at 08:30 ET, coinciding with a price rejection at 0.003086. This suggests strong bearish participation. Turnover also increased proportionally, indicating higher conviction in the bearish move. However, price failed to hold above 0.003091 following this rejection, highlighting continued downward pressure.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the recent 15-minute swing from 0.003232 to 0.00306, the 61.8% level sits at 0.003121. Price failed to hold at this level, suggesting continued bearish momentum. On the daily chart, the 38.2% retracement of the larger move is at 0.003089, a level where price has stalled multiple times recently.

Backtest Hypothesis

A backtest strategy could involve entering a short position on a confirmed break below the 0.003074 support level, with a stop-loss placed above the 0.003089 resistance. A take-profit target of 0.00306 aligns with the 23.6% Fibonacci level and the lower Bollinger Band. This setup would be supported by bearish divergence in the MACD and RSI, with volume acting as a confirmation signal. Given the recent pattern and indicators, this approach could offer a favorable risk-reward profile over the next 48 hours.