Market Overview for IQ/Tether (IQUSDT) on 2025-10-04

• Price opened at $0.003309 and closed at $0.003234 over the 24-hour period, with a high of $0.003359 and a low of $0.003219.
• A bearish trend was evident, particularly after a sharp decline starting at 00:00 ET with a gap down from $0.003351 to $0.003322.
• High volatility was observed during the first few hours of the session with a peak volume of 9.4M Tether.
• Overbought conditions were seen earlier in the session, followed by oversold levels in the final hours.
• RSI and MACD confirmed a weakening momentum, pointing to a potential consolidation phase ahead.

The IQ/Tether (IQUSDT) pair opened at $0.003309 on 2025-10-03 at 12:00 ET and closed at $0.003234 on 2025-10-04 at 12:00 ET. The price reached a high of $0.003359 and a low of $0.003219 during the 24-hour period. Total trading volume amounted to 69,358,574 Tether, while the notional turnover was approximately $232,063. The session saw a bearish bias developing, with a sharp reversal in the early hours of the session marking a key turning point.

Structure and candlestick formations over the 24-hour period suggest a strong bearish bias. A large bearish engulfing pattern appeared at 00:00 ET on 2025-10-04, confirming the reversal in sentiment after earlier bullish momentum. Key support levels formed around $0.003250–$0.003260 and $0.003230–$0.003240, with the latter showing strong rejection from sellers. A 20-period and 50-period moving average on the 15-minute chart both crossed below price, reinforcing the bearish trend. On the daily chart, the 50-day moving average is approaching $0.003280, which could offer a potential resistance level in the near term.

The MACD line showed a bearish crossover in the early hours, with the histogram shrinking as bearish momentum waned toward the end of the session. The RSI fell below 30 after 05:00 ET, indicating oversold conditions, though without a strong rebound, this may suggest a continuation of the downward trend. Volatility, as measured by the Bollinger Bands, saw a significant expansion during the sharp sell-off from $0.003359 to $0.003242 between 00:00–01:45 ET. Price settled near the lower band during this period, indicating heightened bearish pressure. Later in the session, volatility contracted as price moved into a consolidation phase.

Volume and turnover were most active during the early part of the session, with a large candle at 00:00 ET accounting for over 1.6M Tether in volume and contributing to a sharp decline in price. A divergence between price and volume was not observed, suggesting that the bearish move was well-supported by order flow. Turnover remained elevated in the first two hours but dropped off as the session progressed, signaling a potential exhaustion of bearish momentum. A test of the $0.003230 level in the final hours was followed by a small rejection, hinting at a possible short-term floor forming.

The Fibonacci retracement levels drawn from the high of $0.003359 to the low of $0.003219 showed key levels at 38.2% ($0.003283) and 61.8% ($0.003247), which have acted as price consolidation zones. The 61.8% level was tested twice in the last 6 hours of the session, with mixed results. A breakdown below $0.003230 could lead to a test of the 78.6% level at $0.003213. On the 15-minute chart, retracements from intra-day swings suggest a short-term support at $0.003250, which is also close to the 50-period moving average. These levels may provide strategic entry or exit opportunities for traders attempting to capitalize on the near-term trend.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy involves entering short positions at the 50-period moving average on the 15-minute chart when the RSI crosses below 50 and volume increases above average. A stop-loss is placed just above the nearest Fibonacci resistance level, with a target at the next key support or 61.8% retracement level. This approach was observed in the 00:00–01:45 ET period, where the RSI dipped below 50, the 50-period MA was crossed, and volume surged. A trade entry at $0.003322 with a stop at $0.003345 would have yielded a 2.8% gain by 01:45 ET. While this example was successful, the strategy would need to be tested over multiple cycles to confirm robustness and adaptability to different market conditions.