Market Overview for IQ/Tether (IQUSDT) – 2025-09-22

• Price dropped 19.8% over 24 hours, forming bearish momentum with a key low at 0.00321.
• RSI reached oversold territory, suggesting possible short-term bounce from 0.00319–0.00321.
• Volume surged near the low, confirming bearish sentiment, but divergence hints at exhaustion.
• Bollinger Bands showed expansion, reflecting heightened volatility after consolidation.
• A potential double bottom and bullish engulfing pattern emerged near 0.003213–0.003220.

IQ/Tether (IQUSDT) opened at 0.003399 on 2025-09-21 12:00 ET and closed at 0.003199 on 2025-09-22 12:00 ET, hitting a high of 0.003407 and a low of 0.003193. Total traded volume was 118,503,386.0, with notional turnover of approximately $390,732.00. The pair has shown a clear bearish bias over the past 24 hours.

Structure & Formations

Price action showed a distinct bearish breakdown from the 0.003390–0.003407 range, which had previously acted as a key resistance. A potential double bottom is forming near the 0.003213–0.003220 level, where the price reversed multiple times in the last 6 hours. A bullish engulfing pattern formed on 2025-09-22 08:00–09:15 ET, indicating a short-term reversal potential. A doji formed at 0.003201, signaling indecision and the possible exhaustion of the bearish momentum.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-EMA and 50-EMA have been bearishly aligned below the price, reinforcing the downtrend. The 50-EMA crossed below the 100-EMA earlier in the session, confirming a bearish crossover. On the daily chart, the price remains below the 200-SMA, indicating a longer-term bearish bias. The convergence of short and medium-term moving averages near 0.00321–0.00322 suggests potential support clustering.

MACD & RSI

The MACD histogram has been bearishly expanding since the breakdown at 0.003393, confirming the strength of the downtrend. However, the RSI dropped into oversold territory (25–30 range) around 0.003215–0.003220, suggesting a potential bounce. The histogram has started to flatten, hinting at momentum slowdown. If the RSI fails to break above 50 with a strong close, the bearish trend may resume.

Bollinger Bands

The Bollinger Bands expanded after the breakdown, reflecting increased volatility. Price has been oscillating near the lower band for the last 8 hours, indicating a potential mean reversion. A close above the lower band could confirm a short-term reversal, but the bands remain wide, suggesting the trend has room to continue.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged near the 0.003213–0.003220 level, confirming bearish conviction. However, volume has started to contract as price approached the 0.00321–0.003207 range, suggesting weakening bearish pressure. Turnover also spiked near the key support area, but the divergence between volume and price suggests that the move could be losing steam. A breakout attempt with high volume would indicate bearish continuation.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the 0.003393–0.003213 swing, the 38.2% level at 0.003342 and the 61.8% level at 0.003303 are currently not relevant as price is below the 61.8% level. Looking at the recent daily move from 0.003399 to 0.003199, the 38.2% retracement sits at 0.003269 and the 61.8% at 0.003226, both acting as potential short-term resistance levels.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could involve taking a long position on the formation of a bullish engulfing pattern near a key Fibonacci support level, with a stop loss below the pattern's low and a target at the next 50–61.8% retracement level. This strategy could be evaluated on a 15-minute time frame, using volume confirmation and RSI divergence to refine entries. If the pattern forms near a moving average convergence and RSI shows oversold conditions, the signal may gain higher confidence. Such an approach would focus on capturing short-term mean reversion moves during a larger bearish trend.