Market Overview for IQ/Tether (IQUSDT) as of 2025-09-21

• Price declined from 0.003455 to 0.003384, showing bearish momentum and oversold RSI.
• Volatility increased, with Bollinger Bands widening as price tested key levels.
• A bearish engulfing pattern formed on 2025-09-20 22:45, followed by a sharp reversal.
• Volume spiked during the 22:45–00:00 window, signaling strong selling pressure.
• Turnover surged during the bearish move, suggesting accumulation by longs near support.

IQ/Tether (IQUSDT) opened at 0.003422 on 2025-09-20 at 12:00 ET and closed at 0.003392 by 12:00 ET on 2025-09-21. The pair reached a high of 0.003455 and a low of 0.003365. Total trading volume for the 24-hour period was 19,986,769.0, with a notional turnover of $68,427.90 (based on volume and average price). A clear bearish bias has emerged, with bearish patterns and divergences reinforcing the downside pressure.

Structure & Formations

Price broke down through a key psychological level at 0.00343, followed by a continuation through 0.00342 and into the 0.00340–0.003384 range. A bearish engulfing pattern was observed at the high of 0.003455 on 2025-09-20 at 22:45, marking a critical top. The subsequent price action has formed a descending channel and tested Fibonacci support levels from the 0.00343–0.003455 swing. A bearish flag pattern may also be forming near the 0.003384–0.003392 range.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20 and 50-period EMAs have been in bearish alignment for most of the session, with the 20 EMA crossing below the 50 EMA on several occasions, confirming a downtrend. Daily 50/100/200 EMA levels show the 50 EMA has crossed below both 100 and 200 EMAs, reinforcing the bearish setup. Price is currently trading well below all key MAs on both timeframes, indicating a strong bearish bias.

MACD & RSI

The MACD has been in negative territory for most of the session, with bearish divergences visible as price hit the low of 0.003365. The RSI has dipped into oversold territory at 26, suggesting potential near-term support. However, a bearish divergence in RSI has emerged, indicating that even if price bounces, bearish momentum is likely to persist. The MACD histogram has been shrinking, but remains below zero, signaling continued selling pressure.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands have widened over the last 6–8 hours, reflecting increased volatility and uncertainty in the market. Price has spent the majority of the session below the 20-period moving average and well within the lower band, indicating a strong bearish trend. The recent low at 0.003365 occurred near the lower Bollinger Band, suggesting potential for a temporary bounce but not a reversal in the broader trend.

Volume & Turnover

Volume was notably elevated during the bearish move from 0.003455 to 0.003365, particularly in the 22:45–00:00 window. This volume surge aligns with a key reversal pattern and signals conviction in the bearish move. Notional turnover spiked during these hours, confirming the bearish bias. A divergence between volume and price occurred briefly in the early morning hours, suggesting some short-term accumulation, but this has not reversed the overall bearish tone.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the 0.00343–0.003455 swing, price has found support at the 61.8% (0.003414) and 78.6% (0.003398) levels, with the 0.003365 low representing an extended bearish move. On the daily chart, the 50% retracement level is near 0.003410, and the 61.8% is at 0.003398, which could offer temporary support. A break below 0.003365 could target 0.003340, based on the current momentum and structure.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the current bearish setup, a potential backtest strategy would be to enter short positions on a breakout below key Fibonacci support levels, with stop-loss orders above the most recent swing high. A target could be placed at the next Fibonacci level or a key moving average. Given the strong volume and bearish divergence in RSI, this strategy could be optimized with a trailing stop or take-profit level set at the 50% Fibonacci retracement on any potential bounce. This approach would align with the identified bearish momentum and structure.