Market Overview for IOTXJPY: October 3, 2025

• IOTXJPY formed a bullish engulfing pattern at 3.483, followed by a key breakout above 3.500.
• Momentum remained strong during the morning hours, with RSI peaking at overbought levels near 3.513.
• Volatility expanded significantly after 00:00 ET, with Bollinger Bands widening and price testing the upper band multiple times.
• Turnover spiked at 00:15 ET with a large 15-minute print of 135,403 units traded at a high of 3.520.
• A bearish divergence between price and volume emerged during the afternoon decline toward 3.453.

The IOTXJPY pair opened at 3.429 on October 2 at 12:00 ET and closed at 3.461 on October 3 at the same time. The 24-hour high was 3.520, and the low was 3.426. Total volume reached 529,275 units, with a notional turnover of approximately ¥1,868,938 (based on close prices). The pair displayed a volatile yet generally bullish bias, marked by a breakout above 3.500 and a sharp correction into the late afternoon.

Key support levels were identified at 3.476, 3.462, and 3.453, with the latter acting as a temporary floor following a bearish reversal at 3.475. Resistance appeared to cluster between 3.491 and 3.502, with 3.509 marking a recent ceiling. A bullish engulfing pattern formed at 3.483, suggesting strong buying pressure and a shift in sentiment. Additionally, a doji at 3.453 highlighted indecision among market participants during the correction.

Momentum indicators revealed mixed signals. The RSI surged above 70 during the early morning breakout, indicating overbought conditions, but then dipped sharply during the afternoon selloff, reaching oversold levels near 3.453. The MACD showed a bearish crossover as the price declined, aligning with the bearish divergence observed in volume. Bollinger Bands expanded significantly during the morning hours and began to contract as the afternoon session progressed, signaling a potential consolidation phase ahead.

Bollinger Bands and Fibonacci Levels

Price remained within the Bollinger Bands for most of the session, with the 3.520 high testing the upper band and the 3.453 low brushing the lower band. The 3.483 level acted as a key Fibonacci retracement (61.8%) from the 3.520 high to the 3.453 low, suggesting it could continue to serve as a pivot in the near term. The 50-period moving average on the 15-minute chart crossed above the 20-period line during the morning, confirming a short-term bullish trend.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the recent bullish reversal and confirmation via the bullish engulfing pattern and RSI divergence, a backtest could focus on a trend-following strategy using the 20/50 EMA crossover on the 15-minute chart, combined with RSI divergence as a filter. A long entry signal may be triggered when the 20-period EMA crosses above the 50-period EMA, and RSI shows a bullish divergence. A stop-loss could be placed just below the most recent swing low (e.g., 3.476 or 3.462), with a target near the 3.502–3.509 resistance cluster. This strategy appears to align with the observed price behavior on October 3, particularly in the morning hours.