Market Overview for IOTXJPY on 2025-09-26

• IOTXJPY formed a bullish reversal pattern after hitting a 24-hour low of 3.513.
• Price retreated from 3.621 resistance but held above 3.56 support.
• High volatility seen between 19:00–22:00 ET, with volume surging over 130k.
• RSI and MACD indicate potential for consolidation after a sharp rebound.
• Turnover diverged from price during early recovery, signaling mixed sentiment.

IOTXJPY opened at 3.62 on 2025-09-25 12:00 ET and closed at 3.551 on 2025-09-26 12:00 ET, with a high of 3.621 and a low of 3.513. The 24-hour volume totaled 2,831,176 and turnover reached 9,824,678 JPY. The pair exhibited a pronounced downward drift overnight before rallying during the New York and London sessions, forming a possible bullish reversal pattern at the intraday low.

Structure & Formations

Price found a key support level around 3.56, where it bounced off twice, forming a potential double-bottom structure. A strong bearish engulfing pattern appeared on the 15-minute chart around 20:30–20:45 ET after a sharp drop to 3.582. Later, between 00:00–01:00 ET, a series of bullish hammers and a morning star pattern suggested possible reversal from the 3.541 level. The price failed to break above 3.621, indicating resistance remains intact.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, price closed below both 20 and 50-period moving averages after a brief rebound, suggesting a bearish bias in the short term. Over the daily chart, the 50-period MA crossed below the 200-period MA, reinforcing a medium-term bearish trend. However, the 50-period MA is beginning to show a flattening effect, hinting at potential stabilization.

MACD & RSI

The MACD turned negative during the early part of the session, confirming bearish momentum. RSI dropped below 30 during the overnight session, signaling oversold conditions, and later rebounded above 40 during the rally, suggesting short-term buying pressure. However, RSI failed to close above 50 at the end of the session, indicating that bullish conviction remains limited.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly overnight as price dropped below the lower Bollinger band at 3.56, reaching as low as 3.513. Price then re-entered the band during the London and New York sessions. The recent re-entry suggests potential for consolidation, although the narrow band at the close may indicate a possible breakout in the near term.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged to over 130,000 during the 19:00–20:00 ET hour as price dropped from 3.603 to 3.582, confirming bearish sentiment. However, during the 00:00–01:00 ET recovery, volume was relatively muted, showing divergence between price action and volume, which may indicate cautious buying. Turnover was highest during the initial drop and dropped significantly during the rebound.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the 3.621–3.513 swing, price found temporary support at the 38.2% retracement level (3.565) and again at the 61.8% level (3.547). The 50% retracement at 3.569 also acted as a minor support. These levels may become key watchpoints for near-term direction.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy described focuses on using a combination of RSI and MACD crossovers on the 15-minute chart to identify potential reversal points. Given the recent RSI dip below 30 and the MACD bearish crossover, the strategy would have triggered a short signal overnight. However, the subsequent price rebound and divergence between price and volume could suggest a need to incorporate a volume filter or time-based stop-loss to avoid false signals. Integrating this strategy with Fibonacci levels (e.g., placing take-profit near 3.547 and stop-loss just below 3.513) may improve its performance in volatile environments like IOTXJPY.