Market Overview for IOTXJPY on 2025-09-15

• IOTXJPY closed lower at 3.989 after forming bearish reversal patterns and breaking key support.
• Volatility expanded after a morning consolidation, while RSI entered oversold territory.
• Bollinger Bands widened, reflecting increased uncertainty and divergent volume dynamics.
• A sharp selloff in the early ET session triggered a Fibonacci 61.8% retracement, adding near-term bearish bias.
• MACD remained bearish with no sign of near-term reversal, despite short-term overextension.

At 12:00 ET on 2025-09-15, IOTXJPY opened at 4.032, hit a high of 4.091, and closed at 3.989 after a 24-hour session marked by a decline to 3.968. Total volume amounted to 687,388.0, while turnover reached 2,758,980.3 IOTXJPY. A bearish bias has emerged with a breakdown below key support levels and a bearish divergence in volume.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute chart displayed multiple bearish reversal patterns, including a morning engulfing pattern followed by a key breakdown below the 4.051 level. A doji appeared at 4.021 and later at 3.977, signaling indecision. The price action formed a descending triangle after 04:00 ET, with a critical breakdown at 3.976. A Fibonacci retracement of the 4.021–3.968 swing showed the 61.8% level at 3.987, aligning with the session’s close.

Moving Averages

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart have been bearish for most of the session, with price closing below both. On the daily chart, the 50- and 100-period averages are in alignment, reinforcing the bearish trend. The 200-period MA serves as a strong resistance level, which was retested but not held.

MACD & RSI

The MACD has remained negative throughout the session, with a bearish crossover occurring around 05:00 ET. RSI moved into oversold territory near 3.977 and has since shown signs of short-term exhaustion. A potential bounce may occur, but momentum remains bearish. A stochastic RSI cross near 3.987 suggests a short-term bottoming process is possible, but bearish conviction is still intact.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands showed significant expansion following the morning breakdown, with price testing the lower band multiple times. After 09:00 ET, the price remained within the bands but showed a tendency to close near the lower boundary. A contraction phase began around 14:00 ET, indicating a potential pause or reversal, though the trend remains bearish.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked sharply during the morning selloff and remained elevated throughout the session, with notable surges near 08:15 ET and 10:30 ET. Turnover confirmed the price decline, with no sign of divergence between volume and price. However, volume dipped below average in the late afternoon, suggesting waning bearish conviction or a temporary pause in selling pressure.

Fibonacci Retracements

Key Fibonacci levels on the 15-minute chart include the 38.2% at 3.991 and the 61.8% at 3.987, both of which were tested late in the session. On the daily chart, the 61.8% retracement of the 4.091–3.968 swing aligns with the 4.030 level, which may become a pivot in the next 24 hours. A retest of the 3.968 low could trigger further extension levels.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could involve a short entry on a confirmed breakdown of the 3.987 Fibonacci level, supported by a bearish MACD crossover and RSI in oversold territory. Stops could be placed above the 3.993–3.995 resistance cluster, while initial profit targets align with the 3.976 and 3.968 levels. The strategy would require volume confirmation to filter false breakouts and a filter on the stochastic RSI to avoid overextended shorting. Given the current volatility profile and the presence of divergences, this hypothesis may yield profitable results in a bearish environment.