Market Overview: IOTA/Tether (IOTAUSDT) – October 6, 2025 (12:00 ET)

• IOTA/Tether formed key support near 0.1860 and tested resistance at 0.1940.
• Momentum weakened in early ET, then recovered in the afternoon.
• Volatility expanded after 14:00 ET with a volume surge and large bullish candles.
• Price ended near a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level from a major 15-min swing.
• RSI suggests moderate overbought conditions with MACD diverging in the afternoon.

IOTA/Tether (IOTAUSDT) opened at 0.1918 at 12:00 ET-1 and closed at 0.1937 at 12:00 ET today. The pair reached a high of 0.1944 and a low of 0.1861. Total volume for the 24-hour period was 10,297,305.0 with notional turnover (amount × price) totaling approximately $1,988,182.0.

Structure & Formations

Price found strong support near 0.1860 and 0.1870, with a key bullish reversal forming at 0.1865–0.1875. A large bullish candle at 18:30–19:00 ET indicated buying pressure. Later in the day, price tested resistance at 0.1935–0.1945 with a high of 0.1944. A doji formed at 14:15–14:30 ET, suggesting indecision near 0.1930. The 15-minute chart shows a strong bearish engulfing pattern at 19:15–19:30 ET but was quickly reversed.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period MA rose through the 50-period MA early in the day, confirming a short-term bullish bias. By 14:00 ET, the 20 MA pulled back slightly below the 50 MA, but price remained above both. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA sits near 0.1890, while the 200-period MA remains near 0.1860–0.1870, indicating a medium-term bullish setup.

MACD & RSI

MACD remained positive throughout the morning, peaking at 0.1930–0.1935 ET before diverging slightly. RSI reached overbought levels above 60 in the afternoon, peaking near 65 at 14:00 ET. This suggests that while momentum is strong, it may be nearing exhaustion. The combination of strong price action and diverging momentum indicators suggests a potential pullback could be due.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded after 14:00 ET as price moved out of a narrow band and surged toward the upper Bollinger band, which hovered near 0.1940–0.1945. The expansion aligns with a breakout from a 15-minute consolidation phase. Price remained inside the bands for most of the session, suggesting controlled movement without extreme volatility.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked significantly after 14:00 ET with a large candle at 14:15–14:30 ET showing 3.7 million IOTA traded. This coincided with a price jump of 0.0021 within that hour. Turnover also increased, confirming the price move. However, volume waned slightly in the late afternoon, and price corrected slightly, suggesting some profit-taking or short-term uncertainty.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the 15-minute swing from 0.1861 to 0.1944, price closed near the 61.8% level at 0.1926, suggesting a potential consolidation or reversal point. On the daily chart, the recent swing from 0.1850 to 0.1940 shows key retracement levels at 0.1875 (38.2%) and 0.1925 (61.8%), with the current close aligning closely with the 61.8% level.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy outlined involves entering a long position when price closes above the 20-period MA and MACD turns positive, with a stop-loss placed below the 50-period MA and a take-profit at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. This approach aligns with the observed bullish momentum and retracement levels. The strategy would have been triggered twice during the 24-hour period, with the most recent entry at 14:15–14:30 ET. The high volume and strong close above 0.1930 suggest the trade could have held through part of the afternoon before a consolidation phase began. However, divergence in the MACD suggests caution in holding past 15:00 ET.