Market Overview: IOTA/Tether (IOTAUSDT) Daily Performance as of 2025-10-09

• IOTA/Tether fell 3.2% in the last 24 hours, closing near key support at 0.18
• Volatility expanded significantly, with a 10.2% range between high and low
• A bearish divergence in RSI and declining turnover suggest potential continuation
• 15-minute chart shows bearish engulfing and long lower wicks near 0.184–0.186
• Bollinger Bands show price near the lower band, signaling short-term oversold territory

Structure & Formations

IOTA/Tether ended the 24-hour period at 0.1797, down from an open of 0.1858. The price range extended to 0.1898 (high) and 0.1766 (low), with notable bearish patterns forming around the 0.186–0.188 level. A long bearish engulfing pattern was observed on the 15-minute chart at 19:15 ET, followed by a doji near 0.181, suggesting hesitation. Key support appears at 0.180 and 0.177, while resistance is found at 0.184 and 0.186.

Moving Averages

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart have been converging downward, currently positioned at 0.184 and 0.185, respectively. The 50-period MA remains above the 20-period MA, indicating a bearish bias. On the daily chart, the 50/100/200 EMA structure has shifted further apart, with the 100 and 200 lines acting as resistance above 0.186–0.188. Price closed below all three, reinforcing a bearish outlook.

MACD & RSI

The 12/26/9 MACD is bearish, with a negative histogram that expanded as the price declined. RSI stands at 30 on the daily chart, suggesting oversold conditions, although a bearish divergence in the last 6 hours indicates continued downward pressure. MACD crossover below the zero line reaffirms bearish momentum.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands have widened significantly, showing increased volatility. The price closed near the lower band at 0.179, confirming oversold territory. The midline is at 0.183, with the upper band currently at 0.187. A potential bounce is possible, but bearish momentum may override such a bounce without a strong volume confirmation.

Volume & Turnover

Volume reached a 24-hour high of 490,577 at 07:45 ET, coinciding with the price break below 0.180. Notional turnover followed suit, with a peak of $88,203 at that time. A bearish divergence is evident in the last 4 hours as price recovered slightly but failed to attract additional volume. This suggests weak buying interest and could precede further consolidation or a breakdown.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci levels on the daily chart show 0.184 as a key 38.2% retrace level and 0.187 as 61.8% from the recent high. These levels have acted as both support and resistance in the past. On the 15-minute chart, the 0.185–0.187 level remains a critical area, with 0.182 as a potential near-term support zone. The 0.177 level (78.6%) could be a target for further declines if the bearish trend continues.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the bearish momentum and confirmed price action below key moving averages, a possible backtest hypothesis is to enter a short position at 0.1805 with a stop-loss at 0.184 and a target at 0.175. This setup would capitalize on the observed bearish divergence in RSI, the failure to hold above 0.182, and the volume confirmation at 0.180. If price bounces above 0.184 on strong volume, the trade would be exited, preserving capital while maintaining risk control.