Market Overview for IOTA/Tether (IOTAUSDT): 2025-11-02

• IOTAUSDT declined by 1.6% over the past 24 hours, with bearish momentum building as price fell below key moving averages.
• Volatility expanded in the early morning hours, but price failed to follow through on the breakout above 0.1420.
• A bearish engulfing pattern formed near 0.1418, suggesting a possible near-term continuation of downward bias.
• RSI approached oversold territory, but volume diverged, hinting at potential buying interest.
• Bollinger Bands widened during the early session, reflecting increased uncertainty ahead of the next move.

24-Hour Snapshot

At 12:00 ET, IOTA/Tether (IOTAUSDT) opened at 0.1388 and closed at 0.1428 after hitting a high of 0.1433 and a low of 0.1382. The 24-hour volume was 9,173,607 IOTA, with a total notional turnover of $1,296,188. The price action suggests a consolidation phase after a morning rally was followed by a sharp afternoon pullback, indicating cautious market sentiment.

Structure & Formations

The price action displayed a bearish engulfing pattern near the 0.1418 level, which followed a brief rally after midday. This pattern could signal further downward pressure in the near term. A key support level has formed at 0.1400, where the price has bounced multiple times during the session. A breakdown below 0.1400 would likely target the next level at 0.1386. Conversely, a retest of 0.1423 could attract short-term buyers but may face resistance at the 0.1433 high.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, IOTAUSDT is below both the 20 and 50-period moving averages, indicating a short-term bearish bias. The 50-period MA sits at 0.1414, while the 20-period MA is at 0.1411, both acting as overhead pressure. On the daily chart, the 50, 100, and 200-period MAs are aligned around 0.1420–0.1425, suggesting a possible retest of these levels in the coming days for further confirmation.

MACD & RSI

The MACD histogram remained bearish throughout the session, with a negative divergence observed after the afternoon low. The RSI moved into oversold territory around 0.1393, with a reading of 28, indicating potential for a bounce. However, the volume during the rebound was weak, casting doubt on the strength of any immediate reversal.

Bollinger Bands and Volatility

Bollinger Bands expanded during the morning hours, particularly between 05:00 and 08:00 ET, coinciding with the 0.1420–0.1433 breakout. Price remained within the bands for most of the session but closed slightly below the lower band. This suggests a possible continuation of the recent bearish trend. A key breakout above the upper band at 0.1423–0.1428 may need strong volume to be considered valid.

Volume and Turnover

Volume spiked during the early morning and afternoon pullback, with the highest activity observed at 08:15–09:00 ET and again at 14:30–16:00 ET. However, the price failed to follow through on these spikes, indicating potential exhaustion among buyers. The total volume of 9,173,607 IOTA was relatively healthy but lacked direction, pointing to a tug-of-war between buyers and sellers.

Fibonacci Retracements

On the 15-minute chart, the 0.1414 level aligns with the 38.2% retracement of the morning up-move from 0.1408 to 0.1420. The 61.8% retracement is near 0.1406, which could act as a short-term support if the downward correction continues. On the daily chart, the 0.1433 high represents a key Fibonacci level for a potential breakout attempt in the near term.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest of a “MACD Golden Cross + 3-day hold” strategy over the period 2022-01-01 to 2025-11-02 reveals that IOTA has not consistently outperformed a passive hold. While 51 golden cross events were detected, the average return was -0.96% over 3 days, with a win rate of just 39%. This suggests that the market may have become less responsive to this type of momentum signal. Given the recent bearish divergence in MACD and the lack of conviction in volume, investors may want to be cautious about relying solely on this strategy without additional filters.