Market Overview for IOTA/Tether (IOTAUSDT) as of 2025-09-17

• IOTA/Tether (IOTAUSDT) closed near session low after a midday rally stalled, suggesting bearish pressure.
• Price tested key Fibonacci levels twice, failed to hold 0.1895 and drifted down.
• Volume surged during the 17:30–19:30 ET bull attempt but faded afterward, signaling weak conviction.
• RSI entered oversold territory after a late-night decline, hinting at possible short-term reversal.
• Bollinger Bands show low volatility ahead of a potential breakout or breakdown.

IOTA/Tether (IOTAUSDT) opened at $0.1881 on 2025-09-16 at 12:00 ET and closed at $0.1852 on 2025-09-17 at 12:00 ET. The pair reached a high of $0.1905 and a low of $0.1846 over the 24-hour period. Total volume was 8,168,865 units, with a notional turnover of $1,519,995. The price action reflects a bearish bias amid mixed momentum and declining volatility.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute OHLC data reveals a distinct bearish trend over the 24-hour period, marked by a failed bullish attempt during the 17:30–19:00 ET window and a subsequent breakdown to session lows. Key support levels appear to be forming around $0.1875 and $0.1860, while resistance is clustered near $0.1895 and $0.1905. A doji formed near the 19:30 ET time frame, indicating indecision, followed by a bearish engulfing pattern that confirmed the downward shift.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages are in a bearish crossover, reinforcing the downward momentum. For the daily chart (extrapolated from 15-minute data), the 50-period MA crossed below the 100 and 200-period MAs, suggesting a potential bearish trend continuation unless a strong reversal occurs. The price has been trading below all three moving averages, indicating a weak near-term outlook.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line remains below the signal line, with a negative histogram, confirming bearish momentum. RSI has dipped below 30, entering oversold territory in the final hours of the session, which may attract short-term buyers. However, the divergence between price and RSI in the mid-session rally suggests weak conviction in the upside.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded during the midday rally but contracted sharply as the price drifted lower, suggesting potential consolidation ahead of a breakout or breakdown. The price has spent most of the session near the lower Bollinger Band, indicating a bearish bias. A break above the upper band could indicate renewed bullish conviction, while a breakdown below the lower band might confirm a deeper pullback.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the 17:30–19:00 ET rally, reaching a peak of 492,010 units, but then sharply declined as bearish pressure took over. This divergence suggests that the rally lacked follow-through. Turnover mirrored volume patterns, with the largest notional turnover occurring during the midday spike. The late-night decline was accompanied by modest volume, indicating a lack of conviction in the bearish move.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci retracement levels for the key 15-minute swing from $0.1846 to $0.1905 showed repeated tests of the 50% and 61.8% levels, with the pair failing to hold above $0.1895. On the daily chart, the 61.8% level lies near $0.1875, which may serve as a short-term support. A breakdown below that would likely target $0.1860 and then $0.1846.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy involves entering short positions when the price breaks below the 50-period moving average and confirms with a bearish engulfing candle on the 15-minute chart, with stops placed above the 20-period MA and targets set at key Fibonacci levels below. Long positions are triggered when the RSI drops below 30 and diverges negatively, suggesting a potential reversal. This hypothesis aligns with today’s price action, where a combination of bearish patterns, RSI oversold readings, and moving average crossovers supported the bearish bias.