Market Overview for IOST/Tether (IOSTUSDT) as of 2025-10-04

• IOST/Tether declined in overnight trading, breaking below key support near $0.00313.
• A bearish divergence in RSI and falling volume suggest weakening momentum.
• Bollinger Bands widened after morning volatility, with price trading near the lower band.
• Late-day buyers attempted a reversal, but failed to reclaim $0.00316.
• 24-hour volume surged to $355.74 million, signaling heightened market activity.

IOST/Tether (IOSTUSDT) opened at $0.003159 on 2025-10-03 at 12:00 ET, reaching a high of $0.00319 before closing at $0.00309 at 12:00 ET on 2025-10-04. The 24-hour trading range was $0.00319 to $0.003071, with total volume of 171.8 million tokens and a turnover of $550.49 million, suggesting heightened volatility and participation.

Structure & Formations

Price broke below a key support at $0.00313 after a failed attempt to rally in the early hours. A bearish engulfing pattern formed at the $0.00315–$0.00316 level, signaling rejection of bullish momentum. A long lower shadow in the 05:15–05:30 ET candle hinted at a short-term bounce, but a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the $0.003071–$0.00319 swing at $0.003123 has become a new critical level to watch.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, price closed below the 20-period and 50-period moving averages, confirming a short-term bearish bias. Daily indicators show the 50-period moving average above the 100-period, while the 200-period remains higher, suggesting a longer-term sideways to slightly bullish trend may still be in place, though near-term pressure is bearish.

MACD & RSI

The RSI dropped below 50 and approached the 30 oversold level before closing at 35, signaling potential for a short-term bounce. However, the MACD showed a bearish crossover with the signal line and remained in negative territory, reinforcing the view that sellers remained dominant. A reversal in both indicators would be needed for a sustained recovery.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded in the early hours, with Bollinger Bands widening to capture the $0.00319 high. By morning, price consolidated near the lower band, indicating oversold conditions. A close above the upper band at $0.00316 would suggest a reversal, but recent pressure suggests price may find a floor near the lower band.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged in the 05:30–05:45 ET period and again in the afternoon as sellers took control, while turnover remained aligned with price direction. A divergence between falling price and rising volume in the early morning suggests capitulation. However, late-day volume remained high, supporting the idea that the downtrend may persist.

Fibonacci Retracements

The 38.2% retracement of the overnight low–high at $0.003125 acted as a temporary floor. A test of the 61.8% level at $0.003123 could offer near-term support. If broken, the next key level is $0.003087 (50% of the 24-hour range), where further consolidation could begin.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy would involve using RSI below 30 and a bearish engulfing pattern to trigger a short entry, with a stop-loss placed above the 50-period moving average. A long entry could be triggered on a close above the 20-period MA with RSI above 50 and volume confirmation. Over the last 24 hours, both indicators aligned with a bearish bias, validating short-term bearish expectations under this approach.