Market Overview for IOST/Tether on 2025-10-04

• IOST/Tether declined 0.34% over 24 hours, closing below key support at 0.00315.
• Momentum weakened as RSI fell below 50, while volume surged at 0.00311.
• Bollinger Band contraction signaled a period of consolidation before a breakout.
• A bearish engulfing pattern formed at the top, suggesting bearish bias ahead.

IOST/Tether (IOSTUSDT) opened at 0.003159 at 12:00 ET – 1, reached a high of 0.00319, a low of 0.003105, and closed at 0.003119 at 12:00 ET. Total volume over 24 hours was 99,946,017, with a notional turnover of approximately $313,678 (0.003119 × volume). The price action revealed a bearish bias amid rising volume and falling momentum.

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour OHLCV data shows a bearish bias, with the price forming a bearish engulfing pattern near the 0.00319 high. A doji at 0.003175 and a strong bearish candle at 0.003155 signaled indecision among bulls. Key support levels are identified at 0.00315 and 0.003115, while resistance appears at 0.003165 and 0.00318. Price appears to have broken below the 0.00315 psychological barrier and may continue lower toward 0.00311–0.003105.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages have converged near 0.00315–0.00316, suggesting a short-term equilibrium. The daily chart shows the 50-period MA at 0.00317, above the 200-period MA, indicating a longer-term bullish bias, but current price action is bearish in the short term.

MACD & RSI

RSI has fallen below 50 to 39.6, signaling oversold conditions and bearish momentum. MACD lines have crossed to the downside, reinforcing the bearish bias. The histogram shows divergence between price and momentum at key support levels, increasing the probability of a continuation in the current downtrend.

Bollinger Bands

Price has remained within the lower half of the Bollinger Bands for much of the session, indicating weak volatility and bearish pressure. A recent contraction in the bands at 0.00311–0.00312 suggests a potential breakout, either to the downside or as a trap for shorts. If the price breaks below 0.00311, it may extend toward the 0.003105–0.00310 level.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked at 20.85 million at 0.00311–0.00315, coinciding with a sharp decline in price. Notional turnover also increased during this period, confirming bearish conviction. The divergence between price and volume at 0.00313–0.00314 suggests bearish strength. No strong bullish divergence was observed during the session.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci levels were drawn from the recent swing high of 0.00319 to the low of 0.003105. Price has now settled near the 61.8% retracement level at 0.003133. A break below this level would suggest a test of the 78.6% retracement at 0.003105. On the 15-minute chart, the 38.2% level at 0.003155 failed to hold, suggesting further downside potential.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy under consideration involves using a combination of RSI divergence and volume confirmation for short-term trading. A potential trade entry is triggered when RSI forms a bearish divergence below 50, and volume increases at a local low. This setup was observed at 0.003155–0.00316, where RSI hit a new low while price did not, and volume increased significantly. A stop-loss would be placed above the 0.003165 resistance, while a take-profit target aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci level at 0.003105. This strategy may be effective in capturing continuation moves in a trending market like IOST/Tether’s current bearish phase.