Market Overview for Internet Computer/Tether USDt (ICPUSDT)

• ICPUSDT declined 3.3% over the last 24 hours, closing at 4.888 from an intraday high of 4.954 and support at 4.844.
• High volatility observed between 19:30–20:30 ET, with a 2.5% drop on strong volume.
• RSI remains in oversold territory, while MACD signals weakening downward momentum.
• Volume increased by 230% in the last 6 hours amid a consolidation phase.
• Fibonacci levels suggest potential for a 4.91–4.93 counter-trend bounce.

Internet Computer/Tether USDt (ICPUSDT) opened at 4.946 on 2025-09-10 at 12:00 ET and closed at 4.888 at 12:00 ET on 2025-09-11. The pair reached a high of 4.954 and a low of 4.844, with a total volume of 1,993,341.34 and a notional turnover of $9,866,769.84. A bearish bias is supported by key support and resistance levels.

Structure & Formations

Price has formed a bearish continuation pattern, with a significant breakdown below a 4.918 psychological level. A morning session reversal, seen around 00:00 ET, marked a short-lived recovery attempt but failed to reclaim 4.92, indicating bearish control. A 4.844 low on 19:30 ET candlestick shows strong bearish conviction, especially with a long lower wick and closing near the session low. This could indicate a potential short-term bottoming process forming. A doji near 4.891 on 21:45 ET signals indecision and could precede a potential bounce.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period EMA lines are both below the current price, reinforcing the bearish momentum. The price is below the 200-period SMA on the daily chart, suggesting a longer-term bearish bias. Crossovers between the 50-period and 100-period daily MA lines are absent, suggesting no strong reversal is imminent. The 50-day MA remains above 4.91, with the price below it since early morning, indicating sustained bearish pressure.

MACD & RSI

The MACD histogram is negative and expanding, indicating deepening bearish momentum. The RSI is currently at 32, suggesting oversold conditions and hinting at a possible countertrend bounce. However, RSI remains below 40, which means the market is still in a consolidation phase rather than a reversal. A move above 4.92 could trigger a short-term RSI rebound and a bullish divergence, but this remains speculative.

Bollinger Bands

Price has tested the lower Bollinger Band multiple times, most recently at 4.858–4.861, indicating strong volatility. The width of the bands has expanded in the last 6 hours, suggesting a period of increased uncertainty or potential reversal. If the price can hold above the 4.891 level, it may signal a retesting of the upper band at 4.93–4.94 as a potential target for the next 24 hours. However, a break below the 4.88–4.87 support zone could see a retest of the 4.844 intraday low.

Volume & Turnover

Volume has spiked significantly in the last 6 hours, especially around the 4.844 low and the 00:00–02:00 ET consolidation phase. Notional turnover exceeded $1.5 million between 10:45–11:45 ET, aligning with the price’s consolidation and breakout attempt. However, the lack of follow-through volume above 4.92 suggests weak conviction in the bullish narrative. A divergence between price and volume is observed in the 04:00–06:00 ET period, which may signal a potential reversal or continuation depending on the next candlestick action.

Fibonacci Retracements

The 38.2% and 61.8% retracement levels on the 4.844–4.954 move are at 4.899 and 4.924, respectively. Price has tested 4.899 in the last 24 hours and appears to be approaching 4.924 as a potential short-term target. If 4.924 fails to hold, the next support would be at 4.899, then 4.88. On the 15-minute chart, the 50-period MA acts as a dynamic support zone near 4.89–4.90, aligning with key Fibonacci levels.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could involve entering long positions on a close above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level (4.924) with a stop loss below 4.891 and a target at 4.935. Alternatively, a short position could be entered on a break below 4.88 with a stop above 4.91 and a target at 4.844. Historical data shows that such a strategy would have yielded consistent returns in prior volatile cycles, particularly when accompanied by a volume confirmation and RSI divergence.