Market Overview: Injective/Tether (INJUSDT) – 2025-09-26

• Injective/Tether (INJUSDT) fell to a 24-hour low of $11.30 before recovering to close near $11.44, showing strong bearish momentum early.
• A key 15-minute bearish engulfing pattern emerged during the early New York session, confirming downward pressure.
• Volatility expanded significantly between 09:00–10:00 ET with a 5.6% pullback, but failed to break below $11.30.
• Turnover surged to $59,124.96 during the afternoon rebound, coinciding with a 1.4% price spike.
• RSI hit oversold territory at 28.6, suggesting a potential near-term bounce, but 20-period MA remains bearish.

Injective/Tether (INJUSDT) opened at $11.84 on 2025-09-25 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of $11.84, a low of $11.30, and closed at $11.44 by 12:00 ET the following day. Total trading volume was 441,446.54 INJ, with a notional turnover of $4,998,094.95. The pair experienced a bearish bias early, followed by a mid-day rebound that failed to break above key resistance.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute chart reveals a distinct bearish bias from 16:00–08:30 ET, where a strong 11.84 to 11.30 decline unfolded. A bearish engulfing pattern formed at 16:30 ET (11.80 to 11.65), signaling a shift in momentum. Later, from 08:30–16:00 ET, a modest recovery was observed, but price stalled at the 11.60–11.65 range. A doji formed at 11:45 ET (11.43–11.46), hinting at indecision. Support levels are emerging around $11.30 and $11.14, with resistance at $11.52 and $11.65.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period MA (11.54) and 50-period MA (11.52) both declined during the session, indicating bearish momentum. The 20 MA crossed below the 50 MA at 23:15 ET, forming a death cross. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA is at 11.48 and the 200-period MA at 11.51, suggesting the market remains in a slightly bearish trend.

MACD & RSI

The MACD (12,26,9) crossed below the signal line at 05:30 ET, forming a bearish crossover. The histogram remained negative throughout most of the session. RSI hit 28.6 at 11:00 ET, indicating oversold conditions. However, the RSI rebound to 49.5 at 14:45 ET did not confirm a strong bullish reversal. Momentum appears to be building in the latter half of the session, but it remains constrained by the 11.65 level.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded between 09:00–10:30 ET as price swung from 11.41 to 11.55, touching the upper band. The lower band remained at 11.30, acting as a key support level. Price closed near the midpoint of the bands (11.44) on the 24-hour chart, indicating a mixed sentiment. No significant contractions were observed, suggesting the market remains active and responsive to news or volume shifts.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked at 23:45 ET with a large 24,272.38 INJ trade, coinciding with a 11.30 to 11.40 reversal. Turnover surged to $59,124.96 at 12:45 ET as price moved from 11.40 to 11.56. The volume/price relationship was generally aligned during the rebound phase, but diverged during the initial decline, where high volume failed to push price below 11.30. This suggests a possible short-term bottoming process.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the 11.84–11.30 swing, key retracement levels include 38.2% at $11.47 and 61.8% at $11.63. Price reached the 38.2% level on multiple occasions but failed to break above it. On the daily chart, the 50% retracement of a prior 12-month swing is near $11.55, a level that appears to be acting as a psychological barrier.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy for INJUSDT could focus on using the 15-minute RSI and volume as entry filters during retracements. For example, a long entry could be triggered when RSI falls below 30 (oversold), price closes above the 20-period MA, and volume increases by 30% compared to the previous hour. Stops could be placed below the nearest Fibonacci level, with targets at the 50% and 61.8% retracements. This approach could help capture short-term bounces off key support levels, particularly around $11.30 and $11.14. Given the current setup, a similar strategy might aim for a 11.30–11.65 range trade.