Market Overview: Initia/Tether (INITUSDT) – 24-Hour Technical Summary

• Initia/Tether (INITUSDT) traded in a 24-hour range of $0.2981 to $0.3270, closing near mid-range at $0.3002.
• A strong bullish reversal at $0.305–0.3065 and a bearish breakdown at $0.31–0.3095 highlighted key inflection points.
• Volume surged at $0.312–0.326 during the midday rally, while turnover diverged in the final hours of the session.
• RSI and MACD signaled overbought conditions during the rally, followed by bearish momentum in the late afternoon.
• Bollinger Bands narrowed mid-session before expanding with the $0.31–0.325 breakout, signaling rising volatility.

Initia/Tether (INITUSDT) opened at $0.3010 on 2025-10-09 at 12:00 ET, reaching a high of $0.3270 before declining to a 24-hour low of $0.2981. The pair closed at $0.3002 at 12:00 ET on October 10, with total traded volume of 12,460,891.9 units and notional turnover of $3,794,287.90. The price experienced a sharp intraday swing of +6.8% followed by a -7.5% correction, with notable volume surges during key support/resistance levels.

Structure & Formations

The candlestick pattern formed between $0.304–0.3065 suggests a bullish reversal, with a bullish engulfing pattern at $0.305–0.3066 followed by a bearish breakdown into the $0.305–0.3095 range. A doji formed at $0.3046, signaling indecision before the midday rally. Key support levels appear at $0.305, $0.3025, and $0.3001, with resistance levels at $0.3069, $0.3097, and $0.3122.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period MA was around $0.3045–0.3065 at key turning points, while the 50-period MA hovered just above the 20-period line. The daily chart shows the 50-period MA at $0.306–0.308 and the 200-period MA at $0.302–0.304, with the price currently trading slightly below both, indicating short-term bearish bias.

MACD & RSI

MACD showed bearish divergence during the pullback from $0.3270 to $0.3002, with the histogram contracting as price declined. RSI reached overbought territory (70+) during the $0.312–0.3265 rally and dipped into oversold (30–) during the final hours, suggesting potential for a short-term bounce. Momentum appears to be slowing, with the RSI currently at ~49 and the MACD line below the signal line.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands narrowed mid-session around $0.306–0.308, signaling a potential breakout. The price then broke out to the upper band at $0.312–0.3265, reaching the top of the band before retreating. In the final hours, price dropped below the lower band at $0.3001–0.305, indicating high volatility and potential exhaustion.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the $0.312–0.326 rally and again during the final 4-hour correction. The largest single 15-minute turnover occurred at $0.326–0.3270 with $212,688.5 in turnover. Price and volume aligned during the bullish phase but diverged slightly in the final hours, with high volume on a weaker close. Total volume was concentrated in the $0.3001–0.3265 range.

Fibonacci Retracements

On the 15-minute chart, the $0.305–0.3265 rally saw a 61.8% retracement at $0.315–0.316, which failed as a level of support. On the daily chart, a 38.2% retracement of the recent low-to-high move is currently at $0.308, with 61.8% at $0.3045. These levels could dictate the next 24-hour direction depending on price response.

Backtest Hypothesis

Applying a strategy that combines RSI overbought (70) and MACD crossover divergence as sell signals, with a stop-loss at the nearest Fibonacci support level (e.g., 61.8% at $0.3045), could have captured the 7.5% correction in the last 4 hours of the session. Conversely, a bullish entry at the $0.305–0.3066 reversal with a target at 38.2% ($0.308) and a stop below $0.3045 might have yielded a 1.5–2.5% gain. This aligns with the observed technical behavior of volume, momentum, and structure.