Market Overview for Initia/Tether (INITUSDT) – 2025-09-25

• Price action on INITUSDT showed a sharp decline from 0.331 to 0.3081, driven by increasing bearish momentum in late ET hours.
• Volume surged during the selloff, with turnover reaching $132,982.3, indicating heightened bearish conviction and participation.
• RSI and MACD confirmed bearish divergence, with price continuing to drop despite a temporary bounce attempt around 03:30 ET.
• Key support levels were observed near 0.308 and 0.3019, while 0.312 and 0.316 acted as resistance during brief recoveries.
• Bollinger Bands widened as volatility increased, and the price closed near the lower band, signaling a strong bearish bias.

Initia/Tether (INITUSDT) opened at 0.3304 on 2025-09-24 at 12:00 ET and closed at 0.3088 at 12:00 ET on 2025-09-25. The 24-hour high was 0.331, and the low was 0.3019. Total volume traded was 3,282,542.2, with a notional turnover of $1,025,834.30.

The price experienced a prolonged bearish trend, dropping nearly 7% over the 24-hour period. The decline accelerated after 00:30 ET on the 25th, where volume and turnover surged. A bearish engulfing pattern formed at the 02:45 ET candle, followed by a long lower shadow at 03:30 ET—suggesting continued selling pressure. The price found temporary support near 0.3081 in the final hours of the report.

Structure & Formations

Key support levels were identified at 0.308 and 0.3019, where the price paused multiple times, including a sharp rejection at 0.3019 on the 12:30 ET candle. Resistance levels at 0.312 and 0.316 were briefly tested but failed to hold, especially after a mid-session attempt at a bullish reversal between 04:00 and 06:00 ET. Notable candlestick patterns included a bearish engulfing at 02:45 ET and a hanging man pattern at 06:00 ET, both signaling ongoing bearish dominance.

Moving Averages

The 15-minute chart showed a bearish cross between the 20-period and 50-period moving averages, reinforcing the downward trend. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA crossed below the 100-period and 200-period MAs, forming a bearish “death cross” formation. Prices remained consistently below all three moving averages, supporting the view of a deteriorating short- and medium-term trend.

MACD & RSI

MACD lines crossed below the signal line in the early part of the session, confirming bearish momentum. The RSI dropped into oversold territory, reaching a low of 27.5 near 04:15 ET, but failed to trigger a meaningful reversal. A bearish divergence appeared between price and RSI as the price continued to fall while RSI showed minimal recovery, indicating exhausted bullish participation.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy suggests entering a short position after the MACD crosses below the signal line and RSI dips into oversold territory. A stop-loss is placed above the nearest resistance (e.g., 0.312), with a target set at the next major support level (e.g., 0.3019). This approach aligns with the observed bearish divergence and confirmed breakdowns over the past 24 hours. Given the current conditions, such a strategy may yield favorable risk-reward ratios, especially if the trend continues past 0.300.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands showed a noticeable expansion in volatility after the initial bearish move, with the lower band aligning closely with the 0.308 support. The price closed near the lower band on the 12:00 ET candle, suggesting it may test this level again in the coming 24 hours. A break below 0.308 could signal a retest of the 0.3019 level, which will be critical for determining whether the bearish trend continues or consolidates.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during the selloff in the early hours of the 25th, peaking at 440,699.9 with a turnover of $138,628.5 at the 12:30 ET candle. This suggests strong bearish participation, with large-volume sellers dominating the market. A divergence between price and volume was not observed; rather, the two confirmed the bearish bias as the price continued to fall alongside increased turnover.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci retracements drawn from the 0.331 high to the 0.3019 low identified key levels such as 0.316 (38.2%), 0.312 (50%), and 0.308 (61.8%). The price bounced off the 0.312 level twice during the session, failing to close above it. A further pullback below the 0.308 level could see the price targeting the 0.3019 psychological level for a potential consolidation or continuation of the bearish trend.

Looking ahead, Initia/Tether appears to remain in a bearish phase, with strong support at 0.308 and 0.3019 likely to be tested again. While a rebound could occur if buyers re-enter the market, the current setup suggests further downside is possible. Investors should monitor the 0.312 resistance level as a potential battleground for the next 24 hours, with a break below 0.308 signaling deeper bearish pressure. As always, volatility and volume will be key indicators of market sentiment and trend strength.