Market Overview for Initia/Tether (INITUSDT) - 2025-09-18

• Price rose sharply after 19:00 ET, with a peak of 0.3987 before consolidation.
• RSI and MACD suggest growing momentum and potential overbought levels.
• Bollinger Bands show expansion, indicating higher volatility.
• Volume spiked significantly during the late ET hours, confirming bullish strength.
• A key breakout above 0.4018 could target 0.4037 as the next resistance.

Initia/Tether (INITUSDT) opened at 0.3553 on 2025-09-17 12:00 ET and closed at 0.3965 on 2025-09-18 12:00 ET, reaching a high of 0.3987 and a low of 0.3521. The total volume for the 24-hour period was approximately 10.7 million, with notional turnover reaching $4.22 million.

Structure & Formations

The price action formed a strong bullish breakout from a descending triangle pattern around the 0.37–0.39 range. Key support levels were identified at 0.3706, 0.3675, and 0.3640, while resistance levels emerged at 0.3962, 0.4009, and 0.4023. A bullish engulfing pattern was observed at 0.3958–0.3965, confirming renewed buyer confidence. A doji formed at 0.3965, suggesting possible short-term indecision.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, price has been above the 20-period and 50-period moving averages, indicating a bullish bias. On the daily timeframe, the 50-period line is rising, but the 200-period line remains flat, suggesting a medium-term bullish but not yet strong breakout scenario.

MACD & RSI

MACD showed a positive crossover with a strong histogram, reinforcing bullish momentum. RSI reached a high of 68, suggesting that the pair is approaching overbought territory but has not yet crossed 70. This implies the market is strong, but caution is advised if RSI exceeds 75.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands expanded during the late ET hours, reflecting heightened volatility. Price moved above the upper band during the peak at 0.3987, which may indicate a short-term overbought condition. A retest of the 0.3965–0.3969 range is expected to define if the move is sustainable or corrective.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked significantly between 19:00 and 23:00 ET, with turnover surging during the 21:30–21:45 ET and 09:30–09:45 ET sessions. The increase in both volume and turnover confirmed the price surge during key bullish moves. No significant price-volume divergence was observed, suggesting strong conviction in the move.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci retracements applied to the latest swing (0.3521–0.3987) indicate key levels at 0.3774 (38.2%), 0.3859 (50%), and 0.3943 (61.8%). Price has tested and bounced off the 61.8% level, suggesting a possible continuation to the 0.4023 target.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could focus on using a bullish engulfing pattern in conjunction with a 20-period EMA crossover. Given the current setup, a buy signal could be triggered when price breaks above the 0.4009 level with a 15-minute bullish candle that shows volume confirmation. A stop-loss could be placed below the doji’s low at 0.3962 to manage risk. If the model were applied to historical data, this approach would test the robustness of breakout strategies under high-volume environments and overbought RSI conditions.