Market Overview for iExec RLC/Bitcoin (RLCBTC) as of 2025-10-04

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• Price declined from 9.24e-06 to 8.81e-06, with a 24-hour volume of 10,458.2 and turnover of ~0.0914 BTC.
• A bearish breakout below 9.18e-06 and consolidation near 8.81e-06 signal short-term bearish momentum.
• RSI and MACD suggest oversold conditions, hinting at potential short-term bounces.
• Volatility expanded during the day, with a notable breakdown below key support at 9.12e-06.

The iExec RLC/Bitcoin (RLCBTC) pair opened at 9.2e-06 on 2025-10-03 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of 9.25e-06, and closed at 8.82e-06 by 12:00 ET the next day. The total volume across the 24-hour period was 10,458.2, with an estimated notional turnover of ~0.0914 BTC. The price action reflects a steady decline, with significant volatility expansion and a breakdown below key support levels.

Structure and formations reveal a clear bearish trend, supported by a breakdown below the 9.12e-06 level. This level had previously acted as a key support, and the subsequent decline to 8.81e-06 indicates increased bearish pressure. On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages remain bearish, with price consistently below both. On the daily chart, the 50/100/200-period moving averages are also aligned bearishly, reinforcing the downtrend.

MACD shows negative divergence with weakening bullish momentum, and the RSI has fallen into oversold territory, suggesting a potential short-term bounce may be near. Bollinger Bands indicate volatility is widening, and price remains in the lower band, indicating a continuation of bearish pressure. Volume has surged during the breakdown below 9.12e-06, confirming the move lower.

Fibonacci retracement levels on the 15-minute chart show key levels at 9.14e-06 (38.2%) and 9.1e-06 (61.8%), which may act as potential short-term barriers. On the daily chart, the 61.8% retracement near 9.07e-06 remains relevant. The price may find near-term support at 8.75e-06 or face resistance at 8.9e-06 during any potential countertrend movement. Volume and turnover data suggest strong bearish conviction, with no clear divergence seen between price and volume during the breakdown.

Backtest Hypothesis
The backtesting strategy suggests entering short positions upon a breakdown below the 50-period moving average on the 15-minute chart, with a stop-loss above the most recent high and a target at the next Fibonacci level (e.g., 8.75e-06). The data supports this approach, as the 50-period MA has consistently acted as resistance, and the recent breakdown was confirmed by volume surges and momentum divergence. This strategy could align well with the ongoing bearish bias and volatility expansion, though traders should remain cautious as overbought RSI readings may trigger a short-term bounce.