Market Overview for Hooked Protocol/Tether (HOOKUSDT)

• Price dropped sharply overnight, forming bearish momentum with a 9.3% decline in 15-min OHLC data.
• Key support tested near 0.0976–0.0981, with a potential reversal failure at 0.0963.
• High-volume divergence and overbought RSI at 0.105 suggest distribution.
• Bollinger Band contraction followed by a sharp expansion indicates increased volatility.
• Notional turnover surged during the 06:30–09:00 ET window, coinciding with a sharp selloff.

The HOOKUSDT pair opened at 0.1058 on 2025-09-24 at 12:00 ET, reaching a high of 0.1062 and a low of 0.0943 before closing at 0.0978 at 12:00 ET on 2025-09-25. The total 24-hour volume was approximately 16.9 million, and notional turnover (volume × average price) was around 1.69 million USD. A sharp bearish trend emerged after midnight, with a breakdown below key support levels and no strong signs of reversal yet.

Structure & Formations

Overnight, the pair formed multiple bearish candlestick structures, including a key bearish engulfing pattern at 0.1052–0.1048 and a long-legged doji near 0.1011–0.1008. The breakdown from 0.1046 to 0.0981 was supported by increasing bearish volume, suggesting conviction. A potential short-term support zone appears to be forming between 0.0976 and 0.0981, which may act as a floor in the near term if buyers re-enter.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, price closed significantly below both the 20EMA and 50EMA, confirming a bearish bias. On the daily chart, the 50DMA and 100DMA are in a bearish alignment, reinforcing the idea that short-term momentum favors the sellers. A retest of the 20EMA at approximately 0.0978–0.0981 may be critical for near-term direction.

MACD & RSI

The MACD histogram has turned deeply bearish, with a strong negative divergence developing after a short-lived overbought RSI level at 0.105. The RSI has since dropped into oversold territory near 0.0963–0.0965, signaling potential for a short-term bounce. However, bearish momentum remains strong, and a retest of overbought levels is unlikely without a major reversal or catalyst.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly overnight, with the Bollinger Band width widening from a 0.0002 range to over 0.0019 by 06:30 ET. Price traded well below the lower band from 05:00 to 08:30 ET, indicating high volatility and bearish dominance. A tightening phase is expected if price stabilizes around 0.0976–0.0981.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the 06:30–09:00 ET window, coinciding with the breakdown from 0.1011 to 0.0963. Notional turnover also surged, confirming the strength of the move. However, volume has dropped off slightly in the last 4 hours, suggesting potential exhaustion in the current bearish trend. A divergence between price and volume during the 09:45–10:15 ET window raises questions about the sustainability of the rally attempt from 0.0963 to 0.0983.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the major 0.1052–0.0963 swing, the 61.8% retracement level sits at around 0.1012, which appears to have acted as a minor resistance area. The 38.2% level at 0.0994 also saw some rejection, reinforcing its role as a potential short-term resistance. A breakdown below the 0.0963 low could extend the move toward the next key level at 0.0943.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could look to short the pair after a 20EMA crossover and a closing candle below the 50EMA on the 15-minute chart, combined with RSI entering oversold territory. A stop-loss above the recent high of 0.1011 and a take-profit at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 0.0943 would align with the observed bearish bias. This setup would aim to capture short-term bearish momentum, provided volume and price action confirm the breakdown rather than a false sell-off.